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中国实施《醉酒驾车刑事处罚法》的有效性:2004-2017 年的中断时间序列分析。

Effectiveness of implementing the criminal administrative punishment law of drunk driving in China: An interrupted time series analysis, 2004-2017.

机构信息

Injury Prevention Research Institute, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, China.

Department of Psychology, Colorado School of Public Health, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2020 Sep;144:105670. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105670. Epub 2020 Jul 8.

Abstract

In 2011, a more severe drunk driving law was implemented in China, which criminalized driving under the influence of alcohol for the first time and increased penalties for drunk driving. The present study aimed to assess effectiveness of the drunk driving law in China in reducing traffic crashes, injuries, and mortality. Data used in this study was obtained from the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security of the People's Republic of China. An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to analyze annual data from 2004 to 2017, including the number of road traffic crashes, deaths, and injuries caused by drunk driving in China. The average annual incidences of crashes, mortality, and injuries have decreased after the promulgation of drunk driving law in 2011. In the post-intervention period, the increased slope for crashes, mortality and injury rates were, respectively, -0.140 to -0.006, -0.052 to -0.005 and -0.150 to -0.008, indicating a weaker downward trend of dependent variables. The more stringent drunk driving law is not as effective as expected. Drunk driving is still a severe traffic safety problem to be addressed in China. Both legislation and other prevention programs should be adopted to reduce road traffic injuries caused by drunk driving in China.

摘要

2011 年,中国实施了更为严厉的酒驾法律,首次将酒后驾车定为刑事犯罪,并加大了对酒驾的处罚力度。本研究旨在评估中国酒驾法律在减少交通事故、伤害和死亡方面的有效性。本研究使用的数据来自中华人民共和国公安部交通管理局。采用中断时间序列分析方法,分析了 2004 年至 2017 年的年度数据,包括中国因酒驾导致的道路交通事故、死亡和受伤人数。酒驾法律颁布后的 2011 年,交通事故、死亡率和受伤率的年平均发生率有所下降。在干预后时期,事故、死亡率和伤害率的斜率分别为-0.140 至-0.006、-0.052 至-0.005 和-0.150 至-0.008,表明因变量的下降趋势减弱。更为严格的酒驾法律并没有达到预期的效果。酒驾仍然是中国严重的交通安全问题。中国应采取立法和其他预防措施,以减少因酒驾导致的道路交通伤害。

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