Fawad Muhammad, Mubarik Sumaira, Malik Saima Shakil, Hao Yangyang, Yu Chuanhua, Ren Jingli
Henan Academy of Big Data, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, People's Republic of China.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, People's Republic of China.
Clin Epidemiol. 2020 Jul 2;12:699-709. doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S254806. eCollection 2020.
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected by researchers from a patient in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, and broke out in January 2020. Then, the pandemic was detected in countries around the world. Therefore, precise estimates of its current and future trends are highly required for future policy implications.
We retrieved data from the Health Commission of Hubei, China. Logistic-S curve model was used to estimate the current and future trends of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases among 16 cities of Hubei, China from Jan-11 to Feb-24, 2020.
Out of 64,287 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hubei, higher percentage of cases were in Wuhan and Xiaogan. The highest death percentage was found in Wuhan and Qianjiang. A significant percentage of cures were found in Enshi Prefecture and Huanggang, while Wuhan showed the lowest percentage of cures. Rising trends in infected cases were observed throughout the study period, particularly in Wuhan, and a higher trend was observed after 12-Feb. Gradual decline trend of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed during Feb-25 to Mar-15 in Hubei Province. Future forecast showed that the average number of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases might be decreased or stable in Hubei in the coming 20 days.
The public must take precautionary measures in order to control and prevent disease spread and avoid extra travelling.
2019年12月，中国湖北省武汉市的一名患者被研究人员检测出感染了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2），该病毒于2020年1月爆发。随后，全球多个国家都检测到了这种大流行病。因此，对于未来的政策影响而言，迫切需要对其当前和未来趋势进行精确估计。
我们从中国湖北省卫生健康委员会获取了数据。采用逻辑斯蒂S曲线模型来估计2020年1月11日至2月24日期间中国湖北省16个城市中感染SARS-CoV-2病例的当前和未来趋势。
在湖北省64287例确诊的SARS-CoV-2感染病例中，武汉和孝感的病例占比更高。武汉和潜江的死亡率最高。恩施州和黄冈的治愈率较高，而武汉的治愈率最低。在整个研究期间，感染病例呈上升趋势，尤其是在武汉，2月12日之后上升趋势更为明显。2月25日至3月15日期间，湖北省SARS-CoV-2病例呈逐渐下降趋势。未来预测显示，在未来20天内，湖北省SARS-CoV-2感染病例的平均数量可能会减少或保持稳定。
公众必须采取预防措施，以控制和预防疾病传播，避免不必要的出行。
