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人口迁出武汉和医疗支援对中国 COVID-19 感染的影响。

Impact of Population Emigration from Wuhan and Medical Support on COVID-19 Infection in China.

机构信息

Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Medical University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710077, PR China.

出版信息

J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2021 Jun;11(2):178-185. doi: 10.2991/jegh.k.201121.001. Epub 2020 Dec 8.

DOI:10.2991/jegh.k.201121.001
PMID:33605121
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8242124/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection broken out in Wuhan. We aimed to analyse the impact of medical support and population emigration from Wuhan on the cure rate and mortality of COVID-19 infection in China and to provide early warning on the developmental trend of the epidemic.

METHODS

Data were obtained from The National Health Commission of People's Republic of China, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and The National Health Commission of People's Republic of Hubei Province. The Poisson distribution and normal approximate were used to analyse the relationship between population emigration from Wuhan and the probability of outbreaks and to predict the developmental trend of the epidemic situation.

RESULTS

The outbreak were related to population emigration from Wuhan in 87% of the cities in Hubei. The result of developmental trend indicated that 95% confidence intervals of confirmed case in Xiaogan and HuangGang were 3301.678-3526.042 and 3201.189-3422.17, respectively. For province outside of Hubei, the outbreak in 76% of the provinces were related to population emigration from Wuhan. Hot spot provinces for epidemic prevention included GuangDong and HeNan. Medical support significantly improved the cure rate of patients with COVID-19 ( = 0.852, < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Population emigration from Wuhan has a certain impact on the probability of outbreaks COVID-19 in Hubei and the whole country, medical support improved the cure rate of patients with COVID-19.

摘要

背景

新型冠状病毒病 2019（COVID-19）疫情在武汉爆发。本研究旨在分析医疗支持和武汉人口外迁对中国 COVID-19 治愈率和病死率的影响，为疫情发展趋势提供预警。

方法

数据来源于中国国家卫生健康委员会、中国疾病预防控制中心和中国湖北省卫生健康委员会。采用泊松分布和正态近似法分析武汉人口外迁与疫情暴发概率的关系，并对疫情发展趋势进行预测。

结果

湖北省 87%的城市疫情与武汉人口外迁有关。发展趋势结果表明，孝感和黄冈市确诊病例的 95%置信区间分别为 3301.678-3526.042 和 3201.189-3422.17。对于湖北省以外的省份，76%的省份疫情与武汉人口外迁有关。疫情防控热点省份包括广东和河南。医疗支持显著提高了 COVID-19 患者的治愈率（ = 0.852，< 0.001）。

结论

武汉人口外迁对湖北省乃至全国 COVID-19 疫情的暴发概率有一定影响，医疗支持提高了 COVID-19 患者的治愈率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eea5/8242124/b7ae36af13bd/JEGH-11-2-178-g007.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eea5/8242124/c37541049918/JEGH-11-2-178-g006.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eea5/8242124/7efba7cfe38a/JEGH-11-2-178-g001.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eea5/8242124/7d5e337f0074/JEGH-11-2-178-g003.jpg
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