Research Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK
Research Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK.
BMJ Open. 2020 Jul 20;10(7):e034262. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-034262.
Monthly changes in the prevalence of high-risk drinking and smoking in England appear to be positively correlated. This study aimed to assess how far monthly changes in high-risk drinking were specifically associated with attempts to stop smoking and the success of quit attempts.
Data were used from the Alcohol and Smoking Toolkit Studies between April 2014 and June 2018. These involve monthly household face-to-face surveys of representative samples of ~1800 adults.
England.
Data were aggregated on 17 560 past-year smokers over the study period.
Autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous input (ARIMAX) modelling was used to assess the association over time between monthly prevalence of high-risk drinking among smokers and (a) prevalence of attempts to quit smoking and (b) prevalence of successful quit attempts in those attempting to quit. Bayes factors (BF) were calculated to compare the null hypothesis with the hypothesis of an effect sufficiently large (β=0.6) to explain the established association between overall prevalence in smoking and high-risk drinking.
No statistically significant associations were found between monthly changes in prevalence of high-risk drinking among smokers and attempts to quit smoking (β=0.156, 95% CI -0.079 to 0.391, p=0.194) or quit success (β=0.066, 95% CI -0.524 to 0.655, p=0.827). BF indicated that the data were insensitive but suggested there is weak evidence for the null hypothesis in the case of both quit attempts (BF=0.80) and quit success (BF=0.53).
Monthly changes in prevalence of high-risk alcohol consumption in England are not clearly associated with changes in quit attempt or quit success rates.
英国高危饮酒和吸烟的月度变化似乎呈正相关。本研究旨在评估高危饮酒的月度变化与戒烟尝试的相关性，以及戒烟尝试的成功率。
数据来自 2014 年 4 月至 2018 年 6 月间的酒精和吸烟工具包研究。这些研究涉及每月对约 1800 名成年人进行代表性家庭面对面调查。
英格兰。
在研究期间，对 17560 名过去一年的吸烟者进行了数据分析。
采用自回归综合移动平均外生输入（ARIMAX）模型，评估了吸烟者中高危饮酒的月度流行率与（a）戒烟尝试的流行率以及（b）尝试戒烟者中成功戒烟尝试的流行率之间的随时间变化的关联。计算了贝叶斯因子（BF），以比较零假设与效应足够大（β=0.6）的假设之间的关系，以解释总体吸烟和高危饮酒之间已建立的关联。
未发现吸烟者中高危饮酒的月度流行率变化与戒烟尝试（β=0.156，95%置信区间-0.079 至 0.391，p=0.194）或戒烟成功率（β=0.066，95%置信区间-0.524 至 0.655，p=0.827）之间存在统计学显著关联。BF 表明数据不敏感，但表明在戒烟尝试（BF=0.80）和戒烟成功率（BF=0.53）的情况下，零假设存在微弱证据。
英国高危饮酒流行率的月度变化与戒烟尝试或戒烟成功率的变化没有明显关联。
