Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK.
Department of Public Health, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2020 Aug 24;22(9):1476-1483. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntz141.
To quantify population-level associations between quit attempts and factors that have varied across 2007-2017 in England.
Data from 51 867 past-year smokers participating in the Smoking Toolkit Study (a monthly cross-sectional survey of individuals aged 16+) were aggregated over an 11-year period. Time series analysis was undertaken using ARIMAX modeling. The input series were: (1) prevalence of smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy; (2) prevalence of roll-your-own tobacco use; (3) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (4) mass media expenditure; (5) average expenditure on smoking; (6) characteristics in the form of (a) prevalence of high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) proportion from lower social grades, and (d) average number of cigarettes smoked; and (7) implementation of tobacco control policies.
There was a decline in the prevalence of quit attempts from 44.6% to 33.8% over the study period. The partial point-of-sale ban was associated with a temporary increase in quit attempt prevalence (Badjusted = 0.224%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.061 to 0.388). Quit attempts were positively associated with the prevalence of high motivation to quit (Badjusted = 0.165%;95% CI 0.048 to 0.282) and negatively associated with the mean age of smokers (Badjusted = -1.351%; 95% CI -2.168 to -0.534). All other associations were nonsignificant.
Increases in the prevalence of high motivation to quit was associated with higher prevalence of attempts to quit smoking, while an increase in the mean age of smokers was associated with lower prevalence. The introduction of the partial point-of-sale ban appeared to have a temporary positive impact.
This study provides insight into how monthly changes in a wide range of population-level factors are associated with changes in quit attempts over an extended time period in a country with a strong tobacco control climate. The findings suggest a need for intervention or policy to stimulate quit attempts in older smokers. Otherwise, increases in the mean age of a smokers appears likely to undermine wider efforts to promote quit attempts in a population.
量化 2007-2017 年间英国戒烟尝试与各种因素之间的人群水平关联。
汇总了参与吸烟工具包研究（一项针对 16 岁以上个体的月度横断面调查）的 51867 名过去一年吸烟的人群，在 11 年期间进行时间序列分析。采用 ARIMAX 模型进行分析。输入系列为：（1）使用电子烟（a）和尼古丁替代疗法（b）减少吸烟的流行率；（2）自卷烟使用的流行率；（3）（a）吸烟和（b）非每日吸烟的流行率；（4）大众媒体支出；（5）吸烟平均支出；（6）以（a）高戒烟动机的流行率、（b）平均年龄、（c）较低社会阶层的比例和（d）平均吸烟量为特征的形式；（7）实施烟草控制政策。
在研究期间，戒烟尝试的流行率从 44.6%下降到 33.8%。部分售点禁令与戒烟尝试流行率的暂时增加有关（调整后=0.224%；95%置信区间[CI]0.061 至 0.388）。戒烟尝试与高戒烟动机的流行率呈正相关（调整后=0.165%；95%CI0.048 至 0.282），与吸烟者平均年龄呈负相关（调整后=-1.351%；95%CI-2.168 至-0.534）。其他所有关联均无统计学意义。
高戒烟动机的流行率增加与戒烟尝试的流行率增加有关，而吸烟者平均年龄的增加与戒烟尝试的流行率降低有关。部分售点禁令的引入似乎产生了暂时的积极影响。
本研究提供了一个视角，了解在一个具有强大烟草控制环境的国家，在较长时间内，广泛的人群水平因素的月度变化如何与戒烟尝试的变化相关。研究结果表明，需要采取干预措施或政策来刺激老年吸烟者戒烟。否则，吸烟者平均年龄的增加可能会破坏在人群中推广戒烟尝试的更广泛努力。
