Department of Statistics & Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Division of Science & Technology, BNU-HKBU United International College, Zhuhai 519085, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jul 17;17(14):5175. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17145175.
Cascading disasters progress from one hazard event to a range of interconnected events and impacts, with often devastating consequences. Rain-related cascading disasters are a particularly frequent form of cascading disasters in many parts of the world, and they are likely to become even more frequent due to climate change and accelerating coastal development, among other issues. (1) : The current literature review extended previous reviews of documented progressions from one natural hazard event to another, by focusing on linkages between rain-related natural hazard triggers and infrastructural impacts. (2) : A wide range of case studies were reviewed using a systematic literature review protocol. The review quality was enhanced by only including case studies that detailed mechanisms that have led to infrastructural impacts, and which had been published in high-quality academic journals. (3) : A sum of 71 articles, concerning 99 case studies of rain-related disasters, were fully reviewed. Twenty-five distinct mechanisms were identified, as the foundation for a matrix running between five different natural hazards and eight types of infrastructural impacts. (4) : Relatively complex quantitative methods are needed to generate locality-specific, cascading disaster likelihoods and scenarios. Appropriate methods can leverage the current matrix to structure both Delphi-based approaches and network analysis using longitudinal data.
级联灾害是指一系列相互关联的灾害事件和影响，它们通常会带来毁灭性的后果。在世界上许多地区，与降雨有关的级联灾害是一种特别频繁的级联灾害形式，由于气候变化和沿海地区的加速发展等问题，这种灾害可能会变得更加频繁。(1)：本文献综述在之前对从一种自然灾害到另一种自然灾害的记录进展的综述的基础上进行了扩展，重点关注与降雨相关的自然灾害触发因素和基础设施影响之间的联系。(2)：使用系统文献综述方案对广泛的案例研究进行了审查。通过仅纳入详细说明了导致基础设施影响的机制的案例研究，并将其发表在高质量的学术期刊上，提高了审查质量。(3)：对总共 71 篇文章，涉及 99 个与降雨有关的灾害案例进行了全面审查。确定了 25 种不同的机制，作为在五个不同的自然灾害和八种类型的基础设施影响之间运行的矩阵的基础。(4)：需要相对复杂的定量方法来生成特定地点的级联灾害可能性和情景。适当的方法可以利用当前的矩阵来构建基于德尔菲法的方法和使用纵向数据的网络分析。
