Müller Björn, Mercker Moritz, Brün Jörg
Institute for Evolutionary Biology and Ecology University of Bonn Bonn Germany.
Bionum-Consultants in Biological, Ecological and Biomedical Statistics Hamburg Germany.
Ecol Evol. 2020 May 20;10(13):6356-6363. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6365. eCollection 2020 Jul.
Estimating population density as precise as possible is a key premise for managing wild animal species. This can be a challenging task if the species in question is elusive or, due to high quantities, hard to count. We present a new, mathematically derived estimator for population size, where the estimation is based solely on the frequency of genetically assigned parent-offspring pairs within a subsample of an ungulate population. By use of molecular markers like microsatellites, the number of these parent-offspring pairs can be determined. The study's aim was to clarify whether a classical capture-mark-recapture (CMR) method can be adapted or extended by this genetic element to a genetic-based capture-mark-recapture (-CMR). We numerically validate the presented estimator (and corresponding variance estimates) and provide the R-code for the computation of estimates of population size including confidence intervals. The presented method provides a new framework to precisely estimate population size based on the genetic analysis of a one-time subsample. This is especially of value where traditional CMR methods or other DNA-based (fecal or hair) capture-recapture methods fail or are too difficult to apply. The DNA source used is basically irrelevant, but in the present case the sampling of an annual hunting bag is to serve as data basis. In addition to the high quality of muscle tissue samples, hunting bags provide additional and essential information for wildlife management practices, such as age, weight, or sex. In cases where a -CMR method is ecologically and hunting-wise appropriate, it enables a wide applicability, also through its species-independent use.
尽可能精确地估计种群密度是管理野生动物物种的关键前提。如果所讨论的物种难以捉摸，或者由于数量众多而难以计数，这可能是一项具有挑战性的任务。我们提出了一种新的、通过数学推导得出的种群规模估计方法，该估计仅基于有蹄类动物种群子样本中基因确定的亲代 - 子代对的频率。通过使用微卫星等分子标记，可以确定这些亲代 - 子代对的数量。该研究的目的是阐明经典的捕获 - 标记 - 重捕（CMR）方法是否可以通过这种遗传元素进行调整或扩展，成为基于遗传的捕获 - 标记 - 重捕（-CMR）方法。我们对提出的估计器（以及相应的方差估计）进行了数值验证，并提供了用于计算种群规模估计值（包括置信区间）的R代码。所提出的方法提供了一个新的框架，用于基于一次性子样本的遗传分析精确估计种群规模。这在传统CMR方法或其他基于DNA（粪便或毛发）的捕获 - 重捕方法失败或难以应用的情况下尤其有价值。所使用的DNA来源基本上无关紧要，但在本案例中，年度狩猎收获物的采样用作数据基础。除了肌肉组织样本的高质量外，狩猎收获物还为野生动物管理实践提供了额外的重要信息，如年龄、体重或性别。在 -CMR方法在生态和狩猎方面都合适的情况下，它还通过其独立于物种的使用实现了广泛的适用性。
