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阿拉伯半岛降水格局的未来变化，特别关注阿联酋：来自NEX-GDDP CMIP6模型模拟的见解

Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations.

作者信息

Rao K Koteswara, Al Mandous Abdulla, Al Ebri Mohamed, Al Hameli Noora, Rakib Mohamed, Al Kaabi Shamsa

机构信息

National Center of Meteorology (NCM), P.O. Box 4815, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), P.O. Box 2300, Geneva, Switzerland.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Jan 2;14(1):151. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-49910-8.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-49910-8
PMID:38168514
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10762059/
Abstract

Global warming can profoundly influence the mean climate over the Arabian Peninsula, which may significantly influence both natural and human systems. The present study aims to investigate the changes in the precipitation regime in response to climate change over the Arabian Peninsula, with special emphasis on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This work is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The changes are analyzed in three phases such as 2021-2050 (near future), 2051-2080 (mid future) and 2080-2100 (far future), with the period of 1985-2014 as the baseline. This study represents the first attempt to utilize data from NEX-GDDP models to project the regional patterns of precipitation regime across the Arabian Peninsula. Results suggest that the annual precipitation is expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%, particularly intense from the mid-future onwards in all scenarios. Specifically, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes such as intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, and precipitation exceeding 10 mm days are increasing; in contrast, the consecutive dry days may decrease towards the end of the century. The results show that the changes in extreme precipitation under a warming scenario relative to the historical period indicate progressive wetting across UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events, particularly under the high emission scenarios. A high-resolution dataset is essential for a better understanding of changes in precipitation patterns, especially in regions where more detailed information is needed on a local scale to achieve water, food security, and environmental sustainability to formulate effective adaptation strategies for mitigating the potential risks and consequences associated with variations in wet and dry conditions.

摘要

全球变暖会对阿拉伯半岛的平均气候产生深远影响，这可能会对自然和人类系统产生重大影响。本研究旨在调查阿拉伯半岛降水状况对气候变化的响应，特别关注阿拉伯联合酋长国（阿联酋）。这项工作使用了从耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）全球气候模型中得出的高分辨率美国国家航空航天局地球交换全球每日降尺度预测（NEX-GDDP）数据的一个子集，该数据基于三种不同的共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）。变化情况分三个阶段进行分析，即2021-2050年（近期）、2051-2080年（中期）和2080-2100年（远期），以1985-2014年为基线期。本研究是首次尝试利用NEX-GDDP模型的数据来预测阿拉伯半岛降水状况的区域模式。结果表明，阿联酋大部分地区的年降水量预计将增加高达30%，特别是在所有情景下从中期开始增幅明显。具体而言，极端降水的时空分布，如强度、单日最高降水量和超过10毫米的降水日数正在增加；相比之下，到本世纪末连续干旱天数可能会减少。结果表明，与历史时期相比，变暖情景下极端降水的变化表明阿联酋各地逐渐变湿，伴随着强降水事件增加和干旱期事件减少，特别是在高排放情景下。高分辨率数据集对于更好地理解降水模式的变化至关重要，尤其是在需要更详细的当地尺度信息以实现水安全、粮食安全和环境可持续性，从而制定有效适应策略以减轻与干湿条件变化相关的潜在风险和后果的地区。

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