MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
National Malaria Elimination Programme, Abuja, Nigeria.
Nat Med. 2020 Sep;26(9):1411-1416. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y. Epub 2020 Aug 7.
The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.
疟疾负担主要集中在撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA),那里与 COVID-19 相关的病例和死亡人数正在上升。为应对这一情况,各国正在实施旨在遏制 SARS-CoV-2 传播的社会措施。尽管采取了这些措施,但 COVID-19 疫情仍可能导致数百万人死亡,因为当地卫生设施不堪重负。本世纪疟疾控制的进展在很大程度上归功于长效杀虫蚊帐(LLINs)的分发,许多 SSA 国家计划在 2020 年开展运动。在本研究中,我们使用 COVID-19 和疟疾传播模型来估计在四种不同的 COVID-19 流行情景下,疟疾预防活动和其他核心卫生服务中断的影响。如果活动停止,2020 年的疟疾负担可能比 2019 年增加一倍以上。仅在尼日利亚,减少 6 个月的病例管理和推迟 LLIN 运动可能导致 81,000 人(44,000-119,000 人)额外死亡。减轻这些负面影响是可行的,特别是应该优先分发 LLIN,同时提供抗疟治疗,以防止疟疾大规模流行。
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