Youssef Hamdy M, Alghamdi Najat A, Ezzat Magdy A, El-Bary Alaa A, Shawky Ahmed M
Mechanical Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Islamic Architecture, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah 21955, Saudi Arabia.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah 21955, Saudi Arabia.
AIP Adv. 2020 Dec 4;10(12):125210. doi: 10.1063/5.0029698. eCollection 2020 Dec.
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is an established and appropriate approach in many countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. We wished to create a new COVID-19 model to be suitable for patients in any country. In this work, a modified SEIR model was constructed. We used the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia for statistical analyses and complex analyses. The reproduction number and detailed review of stability demonstrated the complexities of our proposed SEIR model. The solution and equilibrium condition were explored based on Jacobian's linearization approach to the proposed SEIR model. The state of equilibrium was demonstrated, and a stability study was conducted in the disease-free environment. The reproduction number was measured sensitively against its internal parameters. Using the Lyapunov principle of equilibrium, the overall consistency of balance of our model was demonstrated. Findings using the SEIR model and observed outcomes due to COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia were compared. The modified SEIR model could enable successful analyses of the spread of epidemics such as COVID-19. An "ideal protocol" comprised essential steps to help Saudi Arabia decelerate COVID-19 spread. The most important aspects are to stay at home as much as possible and for infected people to remain in an isolated zone or secure area.
易感-暴露-感染-康复（SEIR）模型在许多国家是一种既定且合适的方法，用于确定2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情的传播情况。我们希望创建一个适用于任何国家患者的新型COVID-19模型。在这项工作中，构建了一个改进的SEIR模型。我们使用了沙特阿拉伯COVID-19传播的实际数据进行统计分析和复杂分析。繁殖数和稳定性的详细审查证明了我们提出的SEIR模型的复杂性。基于雅可比线性化方法对所提出的SEIR模型探索了解决方案和平衡条件。展示了平衡状态，并在无病环境中进行了稳定性研究。针对其内部参数灵敏地测量了繁殖数。利用李雅普诺夫平衡原理，证明了我们模型平衡的整体一致性。比较了使用SEIR模型的结果与沙特阿拉伯因COVID-19传播而观察到的结果。改进的SEIR模型能够成功分析COVID-19等疫情的传播。一个“理想方案”包括帮助沙特阿拉伯减缓COVID-19传播的基本步骤。最重要的方面是尽可能待在家里，以及让感染者留在隔离区或安全区域。
