Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 2020 Nov;128(11):115001. doi: 10.1289/EHP6745. Epub 2020 Nov 10.
Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.
The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.
An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.
The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.
This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.
模型研究表明，气候变化缓解行动可以带来迅速和局部的巨大人类健康效益。记录这些效益有助于推动更具雄心和保护健康的气候变化缓解行动；然而，记录不良健康影响有助于避免这些影响。估计缓解措施的健康影响（HEM）可以帮助决策者不仅根据缓解潜力，而且根据预期的健康效益来优先投资。然而，迄今为止，开发和报告 HEM 估计的各种不兼容方法限制了它们在政策制定者中的可比性和有用性。
本研究旨在为气候变化缓解行动对人口健康影响的建模研究提供指导。
招募了一组 HEM 研究专家参与制定指导意见，用于进行 HEM 研究。向专家组提供了主要文献和 HEM 研究的综合报告。然后，专家组参与了一项修改后的德尔菲法练习，以确定在 HEM 估计方面达成共识的领域。最后，专家组开会审查和讨论共识结果，解决剩余分歧，并就进行 HEM 研究提供指导。
专家组制定了一份利益相关者参与的建议清单：HEM 建模，包括模型结构、范围和规模、人口统计学、时间范围、反事实、健康反应函数和指标；参数化和报告；不确定性和敏感性分析方法；政策采纳的核算；以及贴现。
这份清单为进行和报告 HEM 估计提供了指导，使其更具可比性和对政策制定者更有用。HEM 估计的协调有可能推动政策相关研究的进展和改进综合，从而为循证决策和实践提供信息。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.
