Jorritsma Joost, Hulshof Tim, Komjáthy Júlia
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
Bureau WO, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Oct;139:109965. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109965. Epub 2020 Aug 25.
In this paper we conduct a simulation study of the spread of an epidemic like COVID-19 with temporary immunity on finite spatial and non-spatial network models. In particular, we assume that an epidemic spreads stochastically on a scale-free network and that each infected individual in the network gains a after its infectious period is over. After the temporary immunity period is over, the individual becomes susceptible to the virus again. When the underlying contact network is embedded in Euclidean geometry, we model three different intervention strategies that aim to control the spread of the epidemic: social distancing, restrictions on travel, and restrictions on maximal number of social contacts per node. Our first finding is that on a finite network, a long enough average immunity period leads to extinction of the pandemic after the first peak, analogous to the concept of "herd immunity". For each model, there is a critical average immunity duration above which this happens. Our second finding is that all three interventions manage to flatten the first peak (the travel restrictions most efficiently), as well as decrease the critical immunity duration , but elongate the epidemic. However, when the average immunity duration is shorter than , the price for the flattened first peak is often a high second peak: for limiting the maximal number of contacts, the second peak can be as high as 1/3 of the first peak, and twice as high as it would be without intervention. Thirdly, interventions introduce oscillations into the system and the time to reach equilibrium is, for almost all scenarios, much longer. We conclude that network-based epidemic models can show a variety of behaviors that are not captured by the continuous compartmental models.
在本文中,我们对像COVID - 19这样具有暂时免疫力的流行病在有限空间和非空间网络模型上的传播进行了模拟研究。具体而言,我们假设流行病在无标度网络上随机传播,并且网络中的每个感染者在其感染期结束后会获得一段时间的免疫力。在暂时免疫期结束后,个体再次易感染病毒。当基础接触网络嵌入欧几里得几何时,我们对旨在控制流行病传播的三种不同干预策略进行建模:社交距离、旅行限制以及对每个节点最大社交接触数量的限制。我们的第一个发现是,在有限网络上,足够长的平均免疫期会导致大流行在第一个峰值之后灭绝,这类似于“群体免疫”的概念。对于每个模型,都存在一个临界平均免疫持续时间,高于此值就会发生这种情况。我们的第二个发现是,所有这三种干预措施都能成功使第一个峰值变平(旅行限制最为有效),同时降低临界免疫持续时间,但会延长疫情持续时间。然而,当平均免疫持续时间短于该临界值时,第一个峰值变平的代价往往是出现一个很高的第二个峰值:对于限制最大接触数量的情况,第二个峰值可能高达第一个峰值的1/3,并且是无干预情况下的两倍。第三,干预措施会在系统中引入振荡,并且在几乎所有情况下,达到平衡的时间要长得多。我们得出结论,基于网络的流行病模型可以展现出连续 compartmental 模型未捕捉到的多种行为。