Department of Urology, Michigan Medicine University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
Department of Urology, Michigan Medicine University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
Urology. 2021 Apr;150:30-34. doi: 10.1016/j.urology.2020.08.043. Epub 2020 Sep 3.
To project the size and demographics of the female urology workforce into 2060.
We assessed current urology workforce estimates using 2019 American Urological Association Annual Census data. We used the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Data Resource Book from 2007 to 2018 to determine the incoming urology workforce. With these inputs, we calculated urologic workforce projections using two stock and flow models.
In our continued growth model, the total number of urologists will be lowest in 2025 with 11,600 urologists and recover to baseline by 2040 with 13,377 urologists. The total number of female urologists will grow 3.77-fold from 2020 to 2060 with an absolute increase of 3,792 urologists. Comparatively, the total number of male urologists will grow 1.33-fold with an absolute increase of 3,996 urologists. In our stagnant growth model, the total number of urologists will be lowest in 2030 with 11,354 urologists and will not recover to baseline by the end of our projection. The total number of female urologists will grow 2.18-fold from 2020 to 2060 with an absolute increase of 1,615 urologists. Comparatively, the total number of male urologists will decrease by 21.5% with an absolute decrease of 2,579 urologists.
In the context of the impending urologic workforce shortage, female urologists make up a significant proportion of the workforce growth over the next four decades in both the continued growth and growth stagnant models. This projection highlights the need for purposeful recruitment, structural changes, and advocacy among urology leadership to support female urologists.
预测 2060 年女性泌尿科医生的规模和人口统计学特征。
我们使用 2019 年美国泌尿科协会年度普查数据评估当前的泌尿科医生劳动力估计。我们使用 2007 年至 2018 年的研究生医学教育认证委员会数据资源手册来确定即将到来的泌尿科医生劳动力。根据这些投入，我们使用两种存量和流量模型计算泌尿科医生的预测。
在我们的持续增长模型中，泌尿科医生的总数将在 2025 年达到最低点，有 11600 名泌尿科医生，并在 2040 年恢复到基线，有 13377 名泌尿科医生。女性泌尿科医生的总数将从 2020 年到 2060 年增长 3.77 倍，绝对增加 3792 名泌尿科医生。相比之下，男性泌尿科医生的总数将增长 1.33 倍，绝对增加 3996 名泌尿科医生。在我们的停滞增长模型中，泌尿科医生的总数将在 2030 年达到最低点，有 11354 名泌尿科医生，到我们预测结束时不会恢复到基线。女性泌尿科医生的总数将从 2020 年到 2060 年增长 2.18 倍，绝对增加 1615 名泌尿科医生。相比之下，男性泌尿科医生的总数将减少 21.5%，绝对减少 2579 名泌尿科医生。
在即将出现的泌尿科医生短缺的情况下，在持续增长和增长停滞模型中，女性泌尿科医生在未来四十年的劳动力增长中占很大比例。这一预测强调了泌尿科医生领导层有必要进行有目的的招聘、结构改革和宣传，以支持女性泌尿科医生。
