Tosato Marco, Nah Kyeongah, Wu Jianhong
Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
J Theor Biol. 2021 Jan 7;508:110483. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110483. Epub 2020 Sep 9.
Ticks are responsible for spreading harmful diseases including Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Understanding tick population dynamics and predicting risk of tick-borne disease insurgence helps to design preventive actions against the disease spread. Using a compartmental model describing the pathogen transmission among ticks and hosts, we study the influence of host-targeted tick control strategies with chemical insecticides on tick population and disease transmission dynamics. Our analysis shows that in areas with rapid-growing population of ticks, host-targeted controls using chemical insecticides may enhance disease persistence and even turn a disease-free area to a disease endemic area. Therefore, the complex dynamics of pathogen spread among ticks and hosts should be carefully examined when designing tick control strategies.
蜱虫会传播包括莱姆病和蜱传脑炎在内的有害疾病。了解蜱虫种群动态并预测蜱传疾病爆发的风险，有助于制定针对疾病传播的预防措施。我们使用一个描述病原体在蜱虫和宿主之间传播的 compartmental 模型，研究了使用化学杀虫剂的针对宿主的蜱虫控制策略对蜱虫种群和疾病传播动态的影响。我们的分析表明，在蜱虫数量快速增长的地区，使用化学杀虫剂进行针对宿主的控制可能会增强疾病的持续性，甚至会使无病地区变成疾病流行地区。因此，在设计蜱虫控制策略时，应仔细研究病原体在蜱虫和宿主之间传播的复杂动态。
