美国一大型城市监狱中 COVID-19 基本繁殖数的估算。
Estimation of COVID-19 basic reproduction ratio in a large urban jail in the United States.
机构信息
SEICHE Center for Health and Justice, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT; Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT; VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT.
Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.
出版信息
Ann Epidemiol. 2021 Jan;53:103-105. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.09.002. Epub 2020 Sep 9.
PURPOSE
To estimate the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2 inside a correctional facility early in the COVID-19 pandemic.
METHODS
We developed a dynamic transmission model for a large, urban jail in the United States. We used the next generation method to determine the basic reproduction ratio We included anonymized data of incarcerated individuals and correctional staff with confirmed COVID-19 infections in our estimation of the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2.
RESULTS
The estimated is 8.44 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 5.00-13.13) for the entire jail.
CONCLUSIONS
The high of SARS-CoV-2 in a large urban jail highlights the importance of including correctional facilities in public health strategies for COVID-19. In the absence of more aggressive mitigation strategies, correctional facilities will continue to contribute to community infections.
目的
在 COVID-19 大流行早期，估算监狱内 SARS-CoV-2 的基本繁殖数（）。
方法
我们开发了一种用于美国大型城市监狱的动态传播模型。我们使用下一代方法来确定基本繁殖数。我们将被监禁者和确诊 COVID-19 感染的监狱工作人员的匿名数据纳入 SARS-CoV-2 基本繁殖数（）的估算中。
结果
整个监狱的估计为 8.44（95%可信区间（CrI）：5.00-13.13）。
结论
大型城市监狱中 SARS-CoV-2 的高表明将监狱纳入 COVID-19 公共卫生策略的重要性。在没有更积极的缓解策略的情况下，监狱将继续导致社区感染。
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