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具有周期性移动模式的异构网络中的疫情传播。

Epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks with recurrent mobility patterns.

作者信息

Feng Liang, Zhao Qianchuan, Zhou Cangqi

机构信息

Center for Intelligent and Networked Systems (CFINS), Department of Automation and BNRist, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

School of Computer Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China.

出版信息

Phys Rev E. 2020 Aug;102(2-1):022306. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.102.022306.

Abstract

Much recent research has shown that network structure and human mobility have great influences on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we propose a discrete-time Markov chain method to model susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics in heterogeneous networks. There are two types of locations, residences and common places, for which different infection mechanisms are adopted. We also give theoretical results about the impacts of important factors, such as mobility probability and isolation, on epidemic threshold. Numerical simulations are conducted, and experimental results support our analysis. In addition, we find that the dominations of different types of residences might reverse when mobility probability varies for some networks. In summary, the findings are helpful for policy making to prevent the spreading of epidemics.

摘要

最近的许多研究表明,网络结构和人类流动性对流行病传播有很大影响。在本文中,我们提出了一种离散时间马尔可夫链方法,用于对异构网络中的易感-感染-易感流行病动力学进行建模。存在两种类型的场所,即住所和公共场所,针对它们采用了不同的感染机制。我们还给出了关于诸如流动概率和隔离等重要因素对流行病阈值影响的理论结果。进行了数值模拟,实验结果支持了我们的分析。此外,我们发现对于某些网络,当流动概率变化时,不同类型住所的主导地位可能会反转。总之,这些发现有助于制定预防流行病传播的政策。

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