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海地一揽子改善营养的幼儿期干预措施的成本效益分析。

Benefit-Cost Analysis of a Package of Early Childhood Interventions to Improve Nutrition in Haiti.

作者信息

Wong Brad, Radin Mark

机构信息

Copenhagen Consensus Center, USA.

Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.

出版信息

J Benefit Cost Anal. 2019;10(Suppl 1):154-184. doi: 10.1017/bca.2019.1. Epub 2019 Feb 28.

Abstract

We conduct a benefit-cost analysis of a package of early childhood interventions that can improve nutrition outcomes in Haiti. Using the Lives Saved Tool, we expect that this package can prevent approximately 55,000 cases of child stunting, 7,600 low-weight births and 28,000 cases of maternal anemia annually, if coverage reaches 90% of the target population. In addition, we expect these nutrition improvements will avoid 1,830 under-five deaths, 80 maternal deaths and 900,000 episodes of child illness every year. Those who avoid stunting will experience lifetime productivity benefits equivalent to five times gross national income per capita in present value terms, at a 5% discount rate. While previous benefit-cost analyses of this specific package have only estimated the lifetime productivity benefits of avoided stunting, this paper also accounts for reductions in fatal and non-fatal health risks. In the base case scenario, the annualized net benefits of the intervention equal Haitian gourdes 13.4 billion (USD 211 million) and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) is 5.2. Despite these substantial benefits, the package may not be the most efficient use of a marginal dollar, with alternative interventions to improve human capital yielding BCRs approximately three to four times higher than the base estimate.

摘要

我们对一套可改善海地营养状况的幼儿期干预措施进行了成本效益分析。使用“挽救生命工具”,我们预计,如果覆盖率达到目标人群的90%,这套措施每年可预防约55000例儿童发育迟缓、7600例低体重出生以及28000例孕产妇贫血。此外,我们预计这些营养状况的改善每年将避免1830例五岁以下儿童死亡、80例孕产妇死亡以及90万例儿童疾病。避免发育迟缓的人将获得终身生产力收益,按5%的贴现率计算,其现值相当于人均国民总收入的五倍。虽然此前对这套特定措施的成本效益分析仅估计了避免发育迟缓带来的终身生产力收益,但本文还考虑了致命和非致命健康风险的降低。在基准情景下,该干预措施的年化净收益为134亿海地古德(2.11亿美元),效益成本比(BCR)为5.2。尽管有这些巨大的收益,但这套措施可能并非边际美元的最有效利用方式,提高人力资本的替代干预措施产生的效益成本比约比基准估计高两到三倍。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e896/7473066/04ed1c4e767e/BCA-2019-bca.2019.1-g001.jpg

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