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涉及检疫策略和媒体报道影响的新冠疫情模型的全局稳定性

Global stability of COVID-19 model involving the quarantine strategy and media coverage effects.

作者信息

A Mohsen Ahmed, Al-Husseiny Hassan Fadhil, Zhou Xueyong, Hattaf Khalid

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, College of Education for Pure Science (Ibn Al-Haitham), University of Baghdad, Iraq.

Department of Mathematics, College of Science, University of Baghdad, Iraq.

出版信息

AIMS Public Health. 2020 Aug 3;7(3):587-605. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020047. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

In this paper, we build and analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission considering media coverage effects. Due to transmission characteristics of COVID-19, we can divided the population into five classes. The first class describes the susceptible individuals, the second class is exposed individuals, the third class is infected individuals, the fourth class is quarantine class and the last class is recovered individuals. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solutions of the model are discussed. The basic reproduction number is obtained. All possible equilibrium points of the model are investigated and their local stability is discussed under some conditions. The disease-free equilibrium is local asymptotically stable when and unstable when . The globally asymptotical stability of all point is verified by Lyapunov function. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to confirm the analytical results and understand the effect of varying the parameters on spread of COVID-19. These findings suggested that media coverage can be considered as an effective way to mitigate the COVID-19 spreading.

摘要

在本文中,我们构建并分析了一个考虑媒体报道影响的新冠肺炎传播数学模型。由于新冠肺炎的传播特性,我们可将人群分为五类。第一类描述易感个体,第二类是暴露个体,第三类是感染个体,第四类是隔离类,最后一类是康复个体。讨论了模型解的存在性、唯一性和有界性。得到了基本再生数。研究了模型所有可能的平衡点,并在某些条件下讨论了它们的局部稳定性。当 时无病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的,当 时是不稳定的。通过李雅普诺夫函数验证了所有点的全局渐近稳定性。最后,进行了数值模拟以证实分析结果,并了解参数变化对新冠肺炎传播的影响。这些发现表明,媒体报道可被视为减轻新冠肺炎传播的一种有效方式。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e44/7505786/c1d5c805364a/publichealth-07-03-047-g001.jpg

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