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减少全球空气污染:进一步政策干预的范围。

Reducing global air pollution: the scope for further policy interventions.

机构信息

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Zielona Góra, Zielona Góra, Poland.

出版信息

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020 Oct 30;378(2183):20190331. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0331. Epub 2020 Sep 28.

Abstract

Over the last decades, energy and pollution control policies combined with structural changes in the economy decoupled emission trends from economic growth, increasingly also in the developing world. It is found that effective implementation of the presently decided national pollution control regulations should allow further economic growth without major deterioration of ambient air quality, but will not be enough to reduce pollution levels in many world regions. A combination of ambitious policies focusing on pollution controls, energy and climate, agricultural production systems and addressing human consumption habits could drastically improve air quality throughout the world. By 2040, mean population exposure to PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources could be reduced by about 75% relative to 2015 and brought well below the WHO guideline in large areas of the world. While the implementation of the proposed technical measures is likely to be technically feasible in the future, the transformative changes of current practices will require strong political will, supported by a full appreciation of the multiple benefits. Improved air quality would avoid a large share of the current 3-9 million cases of premature deaths annually. At the same time, the measures that deliver clean air would also significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to multiple UN sustainable development goals. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

摘要

在过去几十年中,能源和污染控制政策结合经济结构变化,使得排放量与经济增长脱钩,这种趋势在发展中国家也越来越明显。研究发现,有效实施目前决定的国家污染控制法规,应该可以在不显著恶化空气质量的情况下,促进经济进一步增长,但不足以降低许多世界区域的污染水平。通过实施注重污染控制、能源和气候、农业生产系统以及解决人类消费习惯的雄心勃勃政策,可以在全球范围内大幅改善空气质量。到 2040 年,与 2015 年相比,人为源造成的 PM2.5 对人口的平均暴露量可能会减少约 75%,并在世界大部分地区显著低于世卫组织的指导值。虽然未来实施拟议的技术措施在技术上可能是可行的,但要实现当前做法的变革,需要有强烈的政治意愿,并充分认识到多种效益。改善空气质量可以避免目前每年 300 万至 900 万例过早死亡病例的很大一部分。与此同时,提供清洁空气的措施也将显著减少温室气体排放,并有助于实现多个联合国可持续发展目标。本文是关于“空气质量:过去、现在和未来”的讨论文章的一部分。

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