Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Zaragoza, Spain; Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), Zaragoza, Spain.
Department of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.
Int J Parasitol. 2021 Jan;51(1):1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpara.2020.08.004. Epub 2020 Sep 28.
This study modelled the probability of introduction of Hyalomma marginatum into Europe by predicting the potential migratory routes of 28 bird species and the probability to carry immatures of the tick. Flyways were modelled as a spatio-temporal feature, at weekly intervals, using satellite-derived data of temperature and vegetal phenology, together with cost surfaces derived from speed and direction of the wind (years 2002-2018). The expected period of activity of tick immatures defined the probability of ticks being carried by birds along the modelled flyways. The probability of moulting of the engorged nymphs was modelled as a linear relationship of the daily sum of temperatures after tick introduction by birds. Positive probabilities of tick introduction extend the known northern range of permanent populations to central and western France, and large portions of central Europe. The flight of birds into an area and thence the risk of introduction of H. marginatum is very heterogeneous, with sites receiving "waves" of different bird species at diverse times of the year. Therefore, there is not a clear period of time for introduction, as it depends on the modelled behaviour of the bird species. The probability of introduction into Baltic and Nordic countries is small. We hypothesise that conditions of a warmer climate might support permanent populations of H. marginatum if a high number of immatures is introduced. Active surveys in risky territories, where the tick is not yet established, are advisable for rapid intervention.
本研究通过预测 28 种鸟类的潜在迁徙路线和携带蜱虫幼虫的可能性，来模拟边缘革蜱引入欧洲的概率。使用卫星衍生的温度和植被物候数据以及风速和风向的成本表面（2002-2018 年），将迁徙路线建模为时空特征，时间间隔为每周一次。定义蜱虫幼虫活动的预期时期来确定鸟类在建模迁徙路线上携带蜱虫的可能性。饱血若虫的蜕皮概率被建模为鸟类引入蜱虫后每日温度总和的线性关系。蜱虫引入的阳性概率将已知的永久性种群的北界扩大到法国中部和西部以及中欧的大部分地区。鸟类进入一个地区的飞行，以及由此引入边缘革蜱的风险，具有很大的异质性，不同时间会有不同的鸟类“波”到达各个地点。因此，没有明确的引入时间，因为它取决于鸟类物种的建模行为。引入波罗的海和北欧国家的概率很小。我们假设，如果引入大量幼虫，温暖的气候条件可能会支持边缘革蜱的永久性种群。在蜱尚未建立的高风险地区进行主动调查，以便进行快速干预，这是明智的选择。
