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中欧电力系统转型的区域影响,直至 2035 年。

Regional impacts of electricity system transition in Central Europe until 2035.

机构信息

Renewable Energy Systems, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Uni Carl Vogt, Boulevard Carl Vogt 66, CH-1211, Geneva 4, Switzerland.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2020 Oct 2;11(1):4972. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18812-y.

Abstract

Achieving current electricity sector targets in Central Europe (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland and Switzerland) will redistribute regional benefits and burdens at sub-national level. Limiting emerging regional inequalities would foster the implementation success. We model one hundred scenarios of electricity generation, storage and transmission for 2035 in these countries for 650 regions and quantify associated regional impacts on system costs, employment, greenhouse gas and particulate matter emissions, and land use. We highlight tradeoffs among the scenarios that minimize system costs, maximize regional equality, and maximize renewable electricity generation. Here, we show that these three aims have vastly different implementation pathways as well as associated regional impacts and cannot be optimized simultaneously. Minimizing system costs leads to spatially-concentrated impacts. Maximizing regional equality of system costs has higher, but more evenly distributed impacts. Maximizing renewable electricity generation contributes to minimizing regional inequalities, although comes at higher costs and land use impacts.

摘要

实现中欧(奥地利、丹麦、法国、德国、波兰和瑞士)电力部门的当前目标将在国家以下层面重新分配区域利益和负担。限制新兴的区域不平等将促进实施的成功。我们为这些国家的 650 个地区模拟了 2035 年的一百种发电、存储和传输情景,并量化了相关的区域影响,包括对系统成本、就业、温室气体和颗粒物排放以及土地利用的影响。我们强调了在最小化系统成本、最大化区域平等和最大化可再生电力生成的情景之间的权衡。在这里,我们表明这三个目标的实施路径以及相关的区域影响有很大的不同,不能同时进行优化。最小化系统成本会导致空间集中的影响。最大化系统成本的区域平等性会带来更高的影响,但分布更均匀。最大化可再生电力的生成有助于最小化区域不平等,尽管代价更高,对土地利用的影响也更大。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/30fd/7532153/8cc08a080194/41467_2020_18812_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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