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数字化能否减轻大流行造成的经济损害?来自非典的证据。

Can digitization mitigate the economic damage of a pandemic? Evidence from SARS.

作者信息

Katz Raúl, Jung Juan, Callorda Fernando

机构信息

Columbia Institute for Tele-Information, Columbia University, United States.

Economic Analysis Department, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain.

出版信息

Telecomm Policy. 2020 Nov;44(10):102044. doi: 10.1016/j.telpol.2020.102044. Epub 2020 Sep 28.

Abstract

The work presented in this paper uses empirical evidence to highlight the important role digital technology plays in mitigating a pandemic's economic disruption. As extensive datasets including the effect of the current COVID-19 pandemic are still unavailable, this study provides an assessment of the role of digitization at the time of SARS in 2003. Results are robust in pointing out that those countries with better broadband connectivity were able to mitigate some of the economic losses incurred by the pandemic. While anecdotal evidence is plentiful even for COVID-19, this study provides rigorous analysis to support that a reliable telecommunications infrastructure and a high level of digitization is crucial to keep the economy running under pandemic conditions. These results provide valuable evidence for the current context of COVID-19, which has resulted in several national lockdowns around the world. In consequence, we believe that the public and private sectors must collaborate and work together to promote the enhancement of the digital ecosystem. In the long run, a suitable regulatory framework seems crucial to stimulate private investments to close the digital supply gap, as well as promoting the digitization of business process and the training of the workforce to acquire digital skills. In the short term, we discuss several measures that can be taken to accommodate the expected increases in internet traffic in such circumstances and maintain the quality of service.

摘要

本文所展示的研究利用实证证据,强调了数字技术在缓解大流行对经济造成的破坏方面所发挥的重要作用。由于包括当前新冠疫情影响在内的广泛数据集仍然难以获取,本研究对2003年非典时期数字化的作用进行了评估。研究结果有力地指出,那些宽带连接更好的国家能够减轻大流行所造成的一些经济损失。虽然即使对于新冠疫情,轶事证据也很丰富,但本研究提供了严谨的分析,以支持可靠的电信基础设施和高水平的数字化对于在大流行条件下维持经济运转至关重要这一观点。这些结果为当前新冠疫情的背景提供了有价值的证据,新冠疫情已导致全球多地实施国家封锁。因此,我们认为公共部门和私营部门必须合作,共同努力促进数字生态系统的强化。从长远来看,一个合适的监管框架对于刺激私人投资以弥合数字供应差距、推动业务流程数字化以及培训劳动力以获取数字技能似乎至关重要。在短期内,我们讨论了在这种情况下可以采取的若干措施,以应对预计的互联网流量增长并维持服务质量。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5379/7521900/7fefad99b719/gr1_lrg.jpg

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