Using the Past to Maximize the Success Probability of Future Anti-Viral Vaccines.

Rapid obtaining of safe, effective, anti-viral vaccines has recently risen to the top of the international agenda. To maximize the success probability of future anti-viral vaccines, the anti-viral vaccines successful in the past are summarized here by virus type and vaccine type. The primary focus is on viruses with both single-stranded RNA genomes and a membrane envelope, given the pandemic past of influenza viruses and coronaviruses. The following conclusion is reached, assuming that success of future strategies is positively correlated with strategies successful in the past. The primary strategy, especially for emerging pandemic viruses, should be development of vaccine antigens that are live-attenuated viruses; the secondary strategy should be development of vaccine antigens that are inactivated virus particles. Support for this conclusion comes from the complexity of immune systems. These conclusions imply the need for a revision in current strategic planning.