Wade David C, Vidal Céline M, Abraham N Luke, Dhomse Sandip, Griffiths Paul T, Keeble James, Mann Graham, Marshall Lauren, Schmidt Anja, Archibald Alexander T
Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, United Kingdom.
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Oct 27;117(43):26651-26659. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1919807117. Epub 2020 Oct 12.
The 1257 CE eruption of Mount Samalas (Indonesia) is the source of the largest stratospheric injection of volcanic gases in the Common Era. Sulfur dioxide emissions produced sulfate aerosols that cooled Earth's climate with a range of impacts on society. The coemission of halogenated species has also been speculated to have led to wide-scale ozone depletion. Here we present simulations from HadGEM3-ES, a fully coupled Earth system model, with interactive atmospheric chemistry and a microphysical treatment of sulfate aerosol, used to assess the chemical and climate impacts from the injection of sulfur and halogen species into the stratosphere as a result of the Mt. Samalas eruption. While our model simulations support a surface air temperature response to the eruption of the order of -1°C, performing well against multiple reconstructions of surface temperature from tree-ring records, we find little evidence to support significant injections of halogens into the stratosphere. Including modest fractions of the halogen emissions reported from Mt. Samalas leads to significant impacts on the composition of the atmosphere and on surface temperature. As little as 20% of the halogen inventory from Mt. Samalas reaching the stratosphere would result in catastrophic ozone depletion, extending the surface cooling caused by the eruption. However, based on available proxy records of surface temperature changes, our model results support only very minor fractions (1%) of the halogen inventory reaching the stratosphere and suggest that further constraints are needed to fully resolve the issue.
公元1257年印度尼西亚萨马拉斯火山喷发是公元纪年中平流层注入火山气体量最大的源头。二氧化硫排放产生的硫酸盐气溶胶使地球气候变冷，对社会产生了一系列影响。人们还推测卤化物的共同排放导致了大规模的臭氧消耗。在此，我们展示了来自HadGEM3 - ES的模拟结果，这是一个完全耦合的地球系统模型，具有交互式大气化学和硫酸盐气溶胶的微物理处理，用于评估由于萨马拉斯火山喷发向平流层注入硫和卤素物种所产生的化学和气候影响。虽然我们的模型模拟支持火山喷发导致地表气温下降约1°C的响应，与基于树木年轮记录的多次地表温度重建结果吻合良好，但我们几乎没有发现证据支持有大量卤素注入平流层。纳入萨马拉斯火山喷发报告中少量的卤素排放会对大气成分和地表温度产生重大影响。萨马拉斯火山喷发的卤素总量中只要有20%到达平流层，就会导致灾难性的臭氧消耗，延长火山喷发造成的地表降温。然而，基于现有的地表温度变化代理记录，我们的模型结果仅支持极少量（1%）的卤素总量到达平流层，这表明需要进一步的限制条件来全面解决这个问题。
