Chae Seung Hoon, Park Hyung Jun
Seung Hoon Chae is with the Humanities Division, Korea Military Academy, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Hyung Jun Park is with the Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul.
Am J Public Health. 2020 Dec;110(12):1844-1849. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2020.305903. Epub 2020 Oct 15.
To investigate whether the imposition of fines can mitigate the spread of COVID-19. We used quasi-experimental difference-in-difference models. On March 20, 2020, Bavaria introduced fines as high as €25 000 (US $28 186) against citizens in violation of the (federal state's) lockdown policy. Its neighboring (federal states), on the other hand, were slow to impose such clear restrictions. By comparing 38 (counties) alongside Bavaria's border from March 15 to May 11 using data from the Robert Koch Institute, we produced for each its (1) time-dependent reproduction numbers () and (2) growth rates in confirmed cases. The demographics of the were similar enough to allow for difference-in-difference analyses. that introduced fines on March 20 reduced the by a further 0.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.46, -0.18; < .001) and decreased the growth rate in confirmed cases by an additional 6 percentage points (95% CI = -0.11, -0.02; = .005) compared with the control group. Imposing fines may slow down the spread of COVID-19. Lockdowns may work better when governments introduce penalties against those who ignore them.
为了调查罚款措施是否能够减缓新冠病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。我们使用了准实验性双重差分模型。2020年3月20日，巴伐利亚州开始对违反（该联邦州的）封锁政策的公民处以高达25000欧元（28186美元）的罚款。另一方面，其相邻的（联邦州）则迟迟没有实施如此明确的限制措施。利用罗伯特·科赫研究所的数据，通过比较巴伐利亚州边境沿线的38个（县）在3月15日至5月11日期间的情况，我们为每个（县）计算了（1）随时间变化的繁殖数（）和（2）确诊病例的增长率。（这些县的）人口统计学特征足够相似，从而可以进行双重差分分析。与对照组相比，3月20日开始实施罚款措施的（县）的繁殖数进一步降低了0.32（95%置信区间[CI]=-0.46，-0.18；<0.001），确诊病例的增长率额外降低了6个百分点（95%CI=-0.11，-0.02；=0.005）。实施罚款措施可能会减缓新冠病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。当政府对无视封锁措施的人实施处罚时，封锁措施可能会更有效。
