南非抗逆转录病毒治疗方案对 1999-2016 年卡波西肉瘤年龄标准化发病率的影响：一项中断时间序列分析。

The impact of the South African antiretroviral treatment programme on the age-standardised incidence rate of Kaposi sarcoma, 1999-2016: An interrupted time series analysis.

机构信息

School of Health Systems and Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.

National Cancer Registry, National Health Laboratory Services, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

出版信息

Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Jan;102:20-27. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.020. Epub 2020 Oct 13.

DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.020

PMID:33065295

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of the South African antiretroviral treatment programme on the age-standardised incidence rate of Kaposi sarcoma among black South African residents of all ages.

METHODS

We performed an interrupted time series analysis using routinely collected, histologically confirmed surveillance data from the South African National Cancer Registry for the years 1999 to 2016. The analysis was performed using R statistical software. The total number of cases was 29,623 (12,475 females and 17,166 males). The background antiretroviral treatment coverage was less than 1% at the time that the antiretroviral programme was introduced and increased to over 50% in 2016.

RESULTS

In 1999, the age-standardised rates were 1.48 and 2.82 cases per 100,000 per year for black females and males, respectively. These rates increased to 5.52 and 7.46 in 2008 before declining. The antiretroviral treatment programme was started in 2004. Five years after 2008 (nine years after the antiretroviral programme was introduced), the predicted standardised rates were 58.3% and 50.3% lower for females and males, respectively, than what they would have been without the treatment programme.

CONCLUSION

Introduction of the antiretroviral treatment programme was associated with a decrease of over 50% in the predicted age-standardised incidence rates of Kaposi sarcoma.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在量化南非抗逆转录病毒治疗方案对所有年龄段南非黑人居民中卡波西肉瘤年龄标准化发病率的影响。

方法

我们使用南非国家癌症登记处常规收集的组织学确诊监测数据，对 1999 年至 2016 年进行了一项中断时间序列分析。分析使用 R 统计软件进行。总病例数为 29623 例（女性 12475 例，男性 17166 例）。在引入抗逆转录病毒方案时，背景抗逆转录病毒治疗覆盖率低于 1%，到 2016 年增加到 50%以上。

结果

1999 年，黑人女性和男性的年龄标准化发病率分别为每年每 10 万人 1.48 和 2.82 例。这些比率在 2008 年增加到 5.52 和 7.46，然后下降。抗逆转录病毒治疗方案于 2004 年开始。在 2008 年之后的五年（抗逆转录病毒方案推出后的九年），女性和男性的预测标准化发病率分别比没有治疗方案时低 58.3%和 50.3%。