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新冠疫情后瑞士的失业率：跨期视角

Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective.

作者信息

Sheldon George

机构信息

Economics Department, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.

出版信息

Swiss J Econ Stat. 2020;156(1):8. doi: 10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6. Epub 2020 Aug 18.

DOI:10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6
PMID:33072633
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7550767/
Abstract

The following contribution compares the unemployment situation arising from the lockdown induced by the Covid-19 pandemic with previous employment crises in Switzerland. In addition, it forecasts the future trajectory of unemployment based on ongoing changes in hazard rates. From a historical perspective, current unemployment as well as that expected by the federal authorities in the medium term do not seem that dramatic. Current hazard rates present a different picture, however, predicting increases in both the unemployment rate and long-term unemployment to record levels.

摘要

以下文章将新冠疫情封锁措施导致的失业情况与瑞士以往的就业危机进行了比较。此外，它还根据危险率的持续变化预测了未来的失业轨迹。从历史角度来看，当前的失业率以及联邦当局中期预计的失业率似乎并不那么严重。然而，当前的危险率却呈现出不同的情况，预示着失业率和长期失业率都将升至创纪录水平。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/e5888f27d2b5/41937_2020_58_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/761996d6fad2/41937_2020_58_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/850b9e87e77e/41937_2020_58_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/cd45aa413ba3/41937_2020_58_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/e5888f27d2b5/41937_2020_58_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/761996d6fad2/41937_2020_58_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/850b9e87e77e/41937_2020_58_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/cd45aa413ba3/41937_2020_58_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9db3/7550767/e5888f27d2b5/41937_2020_58_Fig4_HTML.jpg

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