Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, 1433 Animal Science Building, 8127 Regents Dr., College Park, MD, 20742, USA.
Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, 1105 SW Williston Rd., Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA.
Sci Rep. 2020 Oct 20;10(1):17783. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-74716-3.
Globally, wide-ranging carnivore populations are imperiled due to human-caused habitat fragmentation. Where populations are fragmented, habitat quantification is often the first step in conservation. Presence-only species distribution models can provide robust results when proper scales and data are considered. We aimed to identify habitat for a fragmented carnivore population at two scales and aid conservation prioritization by identifying potential future habitat fragmentation. We used location data and environmental variables to develop a consensus model using Maxent and Mahalanobis distance to identify black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus) habitat across Florida, USA. We compared areas of habitat to areas of predicted sea level rise, development, and protected areas. Local-scale models performed better than state-scale models. We identified 23,798 km of habitat at the local-scale and 45,703 km at the state-scale. Approximately 10% of state- and 14% of local-scale habitat may be inundated by 2100, 16% of state- and 7% of local-scale habitat may be developed, and 54% of state- and 15% of local-scale habitat is unprotected. Results suggest habitat is at risk of fragmentation. Lack of focused conservation and connectivity among bear subpopulations could further fragmentation, and ultimately threaten population stability as seen in other fragmented carnivore populations globally.
全球范围内，由于人类造成的栖息地破碎化，广泛的食肉动物种群正处于危险之中。在种群破碎化的地方，栖息地量化通常是保护的第一步。如果考虑到适当的尺度和数据，仅存在物种分布模型可以提供可靠的结果。我们旨在确定两个尺度上的破碎化食肉动物种群的栖息地，并通过识别潜在的未来栖息地破碎化来帮助确定保护优先级。我们使用位置数据和环境变量来开发一个共识模型，使用最大熵和马氏距离来识别美国佛罗里达州的黑熊（Ursus americanus floridanus）栖息地。我们将栖息地面积与预测的海平面上升、发展和保护区进行了比较。局部尺度模型的性能优于州尺度模型。我们在局部尺度上确定了 23798 公里的栖息地，在州尺度上确定了 45703 公里的栖息地。到 2100 年，大约 10%的州和 14%的地方尺度的栖息地可能会被淹没，16%的州和 7%的地方尺度的栖息地可能会被开发，54%的州和 15%的地方尺度的栖息地没有得到保护。结果表明，栖息地面临破碎化的风险。缺乏对熊亚种群的集中保护和连接可能会进一步破碎化，并最终威胁到全球其他破碎化食肉动物种群中看到的种群稳定性。
