Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica.
Int J Equity Health. 2020 Oct 26;19(1):172. doi: 10.1186/s12939-020-01291-4.
Costa Rica, similar to many other Latin American countries is undergoing population aging at a fast pace. As a result of the epidemiological transition, the prevalence of diabetes has increased. This condition impacts not only individual lives, but also the healthcare system. The goal of this study is to examine the expected impact of diabetes, in terms of economic costs on the healthcare system and lives lost. We will also project how long it will take for the number of elderly individuals who are diabetic to double in Costa Rica.
CRELES (Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study), a three-wave nationally representative longitudinal study, is the main source of data for this research (n = 2827). The projected impact of diabetes was estimated in three ways: length of time for the number of elderly individuals with diabetes to double; projected economic costs of diabetes-related hospitalizations and outpatient care; and years of life lost to diabetes at age 60. Data analyses and estimations used multiple regression models, longitudinal regression models, and Lee-Carter stochastic population projections.
Doubling time of the diabetic elderly population is projected to occur in 13 calendar years. This will cause increases in hospitalization and outpatient consultation costs. The impact of diabetes on life expectancy at age 60 around the year 2035 is estimated to lead to a loss of about 7 months of life. The rapid pace at which the absolute number of elderly people with diabetes will double is projected to result in a negative economic impact on the healthcare system. Lives will also be lost due to diabetes.
Population aging will inevitably lead to an increasing number of elderly individuals, who are at greater risk for diabetes due to their lifelong exposure to risk factors. Actions to increase the quality of life of diabetic elderly are warranted. Decreasing the burden of diabetes on elderly populations and the Costa Rican healthcare system are necessary to impact the quantity and quality of life of incoming cohorts. Health promotion and prevention strategies that reduce diabetes risk factors are needed to improve the health of elderly populations.
哥斯达黎加与许多其他拉丁美洲国家一样，正在快速迈入人口老龄化阶段。由于流行病学的转变，糖尿病的患病率也有所上升。这种情况不仅影响个人生活，还影响医疗保健系统。本研究旨在研究糖尿病对医疗保健系统的经济成本和生命损失所造成的预期影响。我们还将预测哥斯达黎加需要多长时间，其糖尿病老年人口数量才能翻倍。
CRELES（哥斯达黎加长寿与健康老龄化研究）是一项三波全国代表性的纵向研究，是本研究的主要数据来源（n=2827）。通过三种方式估算糖尿病的预计影响：糖尿病老年人数翻倍所需的时间；糖尿病相关住院和门诊护理的预计经济成本；以及 60 岁时因糖尿病而损失的寿命年数。数据分析和估计使用了多元回归模型、纵向回归模型和 Lee-Carter 随机人口预测。
预计糖尿病老年人口数量翻倍时间将在 13 个日历年内发生。这将导致住院和门诊咨询费用的增加。预计到 2035 年，糖尿病对 60 岁人群预期寿命的影响将导致大约 7 个月的生命损失。预计糖尿病患者人数的绝对数量将呈指数级增长，这将对医疗保健系统造成负面的经济影响。同时，由于糖尿病也会导致生命损失。
人口老龄化不可避免地会导致老年人口数量增加，由于他们终生接触风险因素，他们患糖尿病的风险更大。有必要采取行动提高糖尿病老年人群的生活质量。减少老年人群体和哥斯达黎加医疗保健系统的糖尿病负担，对于影响未来人群的数量和生活质量至关重要。需要采取健康促进和预防策略来减少糖尿病的风险因素，以改善老年人口的健康状况。
