Treloar Padovano Hayley, Janssen Tim, Sokolovsky Alexander, Jackson Kristina M
Center for Alcohol and Addiction Studies, Brown University.
Psychol Sci. 2020 Dec;31(12):1573-1584. doi: 10.1177/0956797620959006. Epub 2020 Oct 30.
According to expectancy theory, outcome expectancies are first formed vicariously (through observing other people) and then through direct experience. This cohort-sequential longitudinal study explored these expectancy origins in 1,023 youths (52% female, ages 10.5-15.5 years at recruitment, = 12.47 years, = 0.95). Discontinuous multilevel growth models described patterns of change in expectancies before and after the first experience of distinct drinking milestones (i.e., first sip, first full drink, first heavy-drinking situation). Youths' expectations for positive and negative drinking outcomes generally increased and decreased over adolescence, respectively, reflecting general developmental trends. Drinking experiences altered learning trajectories, however, reifying positive expectancies and invalidating negative expectancies at each milestone and altering the course of expectancy change thereafter. For positive outcome expectancies, the influence of direct experience on learning was stronger when drinking milestones were met at an earlier age. Conversely, invalidation of negative expectancies was stronger when the first-drink milestone was met at a later age.
根据期望理论，结果期望首先通过替代性方式（通过观察他人）形成，然后通过直接经验形成。这项队列序贯纵向研究在1023名青少年中探索了这些期望的来源（52%为女性，招募时年龄在10.5 - 15.5岁之间，平均年龄 = 12.47岁，标准差 = 0.95）。间断性多层次增长模型描述了在经历不同饮酒里程碑的首次体验（即第一口、第一整杯、第一次重度饮酒情境）之前和之后期望的变化模式。青少年对饮酒积极和消极结果的期望在青春期通常分别增加和减少，反映了一般的发展趋势。然而，饮酒经历改变了学习轨迹，在每个里程碑强化了积极期望并使消极期望无效，并在此后改变了期望变化的进程。对于积极结果期望，当在较早年龄达到饮酒里程碑时，直接经验对学习的影响更强。相反，当在较晚年龄达到第一杯饮酒里程碑时，消极期望的无效化更强。
