2019年冠状病毒病的临床风险预测评分：谨防有效性和临床实用性低下。
Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility.
作者信息
Al Hassan Haamed, Cocks Eve, Jesani Lara, Lewis Sally, Szakmany Tamas
机构信息
Cardiff and Vale University Health Board, Cardiff, United Kingdom, and Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Division of Population Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
Critical Care Directorate, Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, Newport, United Kingdom.
出版信息
Crit Care Explor. 2020 Oct 19;2(10):e0253. doi: 10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253. eCollection 2020 Oct.
Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59-82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550-0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411-0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543-0.714).
已开发出多种风险分层工具来预测2019冠状病毒病的疾病进展，但迄今为止尚未进行外部验证。我们试图在一项多中心研究中验证三种先前发表的风险分层工具。主要结局是2019冠状病毒病病情严重到需要入住重症监护病房或死亡（以出院或30天为截尾时间）的复合结局。我们收集了169例患者的数据。患者年龄为73岁（59 - 82岁），169例中有66例（39.1%）为女性，57例（33.7%）有1种合并症，80例（47.3%）有2种或更多合并症。COVID - GRAM评分的受试者工作特征曲线下面积（95% CI）为0.636（0.550 - 0.722），CALL评分为0.500（0.411 - 0.589），列线图为0.628（0.543 - 0.714）。
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