Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Science. 2020 Nov 6;370(6517). doi: 10.1126/science.aay3701.
As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation-a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.
随着全球变暖,人们迫切需要提高对气候变化的预测能力。尽管最新的地球系统模型提供了前所未有的大量特征,但基本不确定性仍然使我们对未来的情况感到困惑。过去的气候为观察地球系统对高二氧化碳的反应提供了唯一的机会,这凸显了古气候学在约束未来气候变化方面的基础性作用。在这里,我们回顾了古气候信息对于气候预测的相关性,并讨论了新兴方法在进一步挖掘过去气候所带来的启示方面的前景。代理方法和解释方面的进展为利用过去的气候进行模型评估铺平了道路——我们认为,这种做法应该得到广泛采用。