Department of Nutrition, School of Medicine, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
Department of Management & Health Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Int J Health Policy Manag. 2022 May 1;11(5):651-657. doi: 10.34172/ijhpm.2020.207.
Following the re-imposition of US sanctions against Iran in 2018, unprecedented inflation has occurred in Iran's food market that will undoubtedly affect the food security of the Iranian people. The present study aims to determine the effects of the sanctions on food prices and food security of Iranian households.
Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was applied to assess the effects of sanctions on the average retail price of food products in Iran. Household food security was estimated by calculating the share of household food expenditure. Costs of following a healthy diet based on the food pyramid were estimated.
The import dependency ratio of Iran's food market was about 25%. After sanctions due to the limitations in international financial exchanges a significant increase in the prices of all food groups occurred in 2018, the year after the re-imposition of sanctions. The highest inflation rate was observed in vegetable, meat, and fruit groups. The percentage of urban and rural households in Iran that were prone to food insecurity increased from 8.84% and 25.17% to 11.2% and 29.2%, respectively, from 2017 to 2019. The annual average cost of a healthy diet for a sample Iranian family of 3.3, based on the current prices, is 341 866 008 IRR (US$2849) which is 3.6 times greater than the average amount Iranian families spent on food last year (94 505 000 IRR or US$788).
After the re-imposition of US sanctions against Iran, food insecurity as a result of economic vulnerability, has increased and due to the current status of food prices and incomes, following a healthy diet has become more difficult for most Iranians. This makes the Iranian population more prone to chronic diseases in the near future and if this trend persists, it places the country in danger of food crisis and political instability.
2018 年美国对伊朗重新实施制裁后，伊朗食品市场出现了前所未有的通胀，这无疑将影响伊朗人民的食品安全。本研究旨在确定制裁对伊朗家庭食品价格和食品安全的影响。
采用中断时间序列（ITS）分析评估制裁对伊朗食品产品平均零售价格的影响。通过计算家庭食品支出份额来估计家庭食品安全状况。根据食物金字塔计算遵循健康饮食的成本。
伊朗食品市场的进口依存度约为 25%。制裁后，由于国际金融交易受到限制，所有食品类别的价格在 2018 年，即制裁重新实施的次年都出现了大幅上涨。蔬菜、肉类和水果价格涨幅最高。2017 年至 2019 年，伊朗城市和农村家庭中面临粮食不安全的比例分别从 8.84%和 25.17%上升到 11.2%和 29.2%。根据当前价格，一个典型的 3.3 口伊朗家庭每年的健康饮食费用平均为 341866008 里亚尔（2849 美元），是去年伊朗家庭食品支出平均金额（94505000 里亚尔或 788 美元）的 3.6 倍。
美国对伊朗重新实施制裁后，由于经济脆弱性导致粮食不安全状况加剧，而且由于目前的食品价格和收入状况，大多数伊朗人更难遵循健康饮食。这使得伊朗人口在不久的将来更容易患上慢性病，如果这种趋势持续下去，该国将面临粮食危机和政治不稳定的风险。
