Silva Julio Cezar Soares, de Lima Silva Diogo Ferreira, Delgado Neto Afonso de Sá, Ferraz André, Melo José Luciano, Ferreira Júnior Nivan Roberto, de Almeida Filho Adiel Teixeira
Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil.
Management Engineering Department, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil.
Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Feb;65:102574. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102574. Epub 2020 Nov 5.
Given the recent outbreak of Sars-CoV-2, several countries started to seek different strategies to control contamination and minimize fatalities, which are usually the primary objectives for all strategies. Secondary objectives are related to economic factors, therefore ensuring that society would be able is to keep its essential activities and avoid supply disruptions. This paper presents an application of anonymized mobile phone users' location data to estimate population flow amongst cities with an origin-destination matrix. The work includes a clustering analysis of cities, which may enable policymakers (and epidemiologists) to develop public policies giving the appropriate consideration for each set of cities within a Province or State. Risk measures are included to analyze the severity of the spread among the clusters, which can be ranked. Then, intelligence can be obtained from the analysis, and some clusters could be isolated to avoid contagion while keeping their economic activities. Therefore, this analysis is reproducible for other states of Brazil and other countries and can be adapted for districts within a city, especially considering the possibility of a second wave COVID-19 pandemic.
鉴于最近新型冠状病毒（Sars-CoV-2）的爆发，几个国家开始寻求不同策略来控制感染并将死亡人数降至最低，这些通常是所有策略的主要目标。次要目标与经济因素相关，因此要确保社会能够维持其基本活动并避免供应中断。本文介绍了一种应用匿名手机用户位置数据来通过起讫点矩阵估计城市间人口流动的方法。这项工作包括对城市的聚类分析，这可能使政策制定者（和流行病学家）能够制定公共政策，从而对一个省或州内的每组城市给予适当考虑。还纳入了风险度量来分析各聚类间传播的严重程度，这些聚类可以进行排名。然后，可以从分析中获取情报，并且可以隔离一些聚类以避免传染，同时维持其经济活动。因此，这种分析对于巴西的其他州和其他国家是可重复的，并且可以适用于城市内的各个区，特别是考虑到可能出现的第二波新冠疫情。
