《COVID-19 大流行准备模拟工具：CovidSIM》。
The COVID-19 pandemic preparedness simulation tool: CovidSIM.
机构信息
Department of Applied Computer- and Bio-Sciences, University of Applied Sciences Mittweida, Technikumplatz 17, Mittweida, 09648, Germany.
Department of Mathematics, University of Buea, Buea, Cameroon, P.O. Box 63, South West Region, Buea, Cameroon.
出版信息
BMC Infect Dis. 2020 Nov 19;20(1):859. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05566-7.
BACKGROUND
Efficient control and management in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic needs to carefully balance economical and realizable interventions. Simulation models can play a cardinal role in forecasting possible scenarios to sustain decision support.
METHODS
We present a sophisticated extension of a classical SEIR model. The simulation tool CovidSIM Version 1.0 is an openly accessible web interface to interactively conduct simulations of this model. The simulation tool is used to assess the effects of various interventions, assuming parameters that reflect the situation in Austria as an example.
RESULTS
Strict contact reduction including isolation of infected persons in quarantine wards and at home can substantially delay the peak of the epidemic. Home isolation of infected individuals effectively reduces the height of the peak. Contact reduction by social distancing, e.g., by curfews, sanitary behavior, etc. are also effective in delaying the epidemic peak.
CONCLUSIONS
Contact-reducing mechanisms are efficient to delay the peak of the epidemic. They might also be effective in decreasing the peak number of infections depending on seasonal fluctuations in the transmissibility of the disease.
背景
在持续的 COVID-19 大流行中，需要有效地控制和管理，以仔细平衡经济和可行的干预措施。模拟模型可以在预测可能的情景以维持决策支持方面发挥重要作用。
方法
我们提出了一个经典 SEIR 模型的复杂扩展。模拟工具 CovidSIM Version 1.0 是一个开放访问的网络界面，可用于交互式地进行该模型的模拟。该模拟工具用于评估各种干预措施的效果，假设的参数反映了奥地利的情况作为一个例子。
结果
严格减少接触，包括将感染者隔离在检疫病房和家中，可以大大延迟疫情高峰。在家中隔离感染者可有效降低高峰值。通过社会隔离（例如宵禁、卫生行为等）减少接触也可以有效地延迟疫情高峰。
结论
减少接触的机制可以有效地延迟疫情高峰。它们也可能会在一定程度上减少感染的峰值数量，这取决于疾病传播的季节性波动。
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