School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang City, Jiangsu Province, China.
PLoS One. 2020 Nov 23;15(11):e0242425. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242425. eCollection 2020.
China has conducted a long-term low-carbon technology innovation (LCTI), but there was a faster increase of CO2 emission in 2017 and 2018 than in 2016, which has lead scholars to doubt the effect of LCTI on CO2 emission. This paper builds a spatial auto regression (SAR) model with provincial panel data from 2011 to 2017 to calculate the spatial spillover effect of China's LCTI on regional CO2 emission. The results show that regional LCTI can reduce the local CO2 emission, but will increase the CO2 emission of adjacent regions due to spatial spillover effect. This produces the uncertainty of the promotion effect of LCTI on China's low-carbon transformation. Therefore, this paper suggests innovation resources should be appropriately and evenly distributed among regions to avoid their agglomeration in few regions.
中国长期以来一直进行低碳技术创新（LCTI），但在 2017 年和 2018 年，二氧化碳排放量的增长速度却快于 2016 年，这使得学者们对 LCTI 对二氧化碳排放的影响产生了怀疑。本文利用 2011 年至 2017 年的省级面板数据构建了空间自回归（SAR）模型，以计算中国 LCTI 对区域二氧化碳排放的空间溢出效应。结果表明，区域 LCTI 可以减少当地的二氧化碳排放，但由于空间溢出效应，会增加相邻地区的二氧化碳排放。这给 LCTI 对中国低碳转型的促进效果带来了不确定性。因此，本文建议在区域间适当、均衡地分配创新资源，避免其在少数地区聚集。
