The impact of LCTI on China's low-carbon transformation from the spatial spillover perspective.

China has conducted a long-term low-carbon technology innovation (LCTI), but there was a faster increase of CO2 emission in 2017 and 2018 than in 2016, which has lead scholars to doubt the effect of LCTI on CO2 emission. This paper builds a spatial auto regression (SAR) model with provincial panel data from 2011 to 2017 to calculate the spatial spillover effect of China's LCTI on regional CO2 emission. The results show that regional LCTI can reduce the local CO2 emission, but will increase the CO2 emission of adjacent regions due to spatial spillover effect. This produces the uncertainty of the promotion effect of LCTI on China's low-carbon transformation. Therefore, this paper suggests innovation resources should be appropriately and evenly distributed among regions to avoid their agglomeration in few regions.