O'Neill Brian C, Carter Timothy R, Ebi Kristie, Harrison Paula A, Kemp-Benedict Eric, Kok Kasper, Kriegler Elmar, Preston Benjamin L, Riahi Keywan, Sillmann Jana, van Ruijven Bas J, van Vuuren Detlef, Carlisle David, Conde Cecilia, Fuglestvedt Jan, Green Carole, Hasegawa Tomoko, Leininger Julia, Monteith Seth, Pichs-Madruga Ramon
Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.
Present Address: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD USA.
Nat Clim Chang. 2020;10(12):1074-1084. doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0. Epub 2020 Nov 25.
Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.
四十年来，长期全球情景一直是全球环境变化研究与评估的基础。在过去十年里，气候变化研究界开发了一个情景框架，将气候与社会的不同未来相结合，以促进综合研究和连贯评估，为政策提供依据。在此，我们评估该框架的运行情况及其面临的挑战。我们综合了基于情景的文献、社区讨论以及评估中的近期经验得出的见解，得出结论认为该框架已在各研究社区广泛采用，并且在很大程度上满足了当前需求。然而，一些喜忧参半的成果以及不断变化的政策和研究格局带来了关键挑战，我们为该框架的开发与使用推荐了几个新方向。
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