Kariyawasam Champika S, Kumar Lalit, Ratnayake Sujith S
Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia.
Climate Change Secretariat, Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment, Battaramulla 10120, Sri Lanka.
Entropy (Basel). 2019 Jun 5;21(6):571. doi: 10.3390/e21060571.
Plant invasion has been widely recognized as an agent of global change that has the potential to have severe impacts under climate change. The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) on biodiversity and ecosystem stability is growing and not adequately studied, especially in developing countries. Defining climate suitability for multiple invasive plants establishment is important for early and strategic interventions to control and manage plant invasions. We modeled priority IAPS in Sri Lanka to identify the areas of greatest climatic suitability for their establishment and observed how these areas could be altered under projected climate change. We used Maximum Entropy method to model 14 nationally significant IAPS under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The combined climate suitability map produced by summing up climatic suitability of 14 IAPS was further classified into five classes in ArcMap as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. South and west parts of Sri Lanka are projected to have potentially higher climatic suitability for a larger number of IAPS. We observed suitable area changes (gains and losses) in all five classes of which two were significant enough to make an overall negative impact i.e., (i) contraction of the very low class and (ii) expansion of the moderate class. Both these changes trigger the potential risk from IAPS in Sri Lanka in the future.
植物入侵已被广泛认为是全球变化的一个因素，在气候变化的情况下有可能产生严重影响。外来入侵植物物种（IAPS）对生物多样性和生态系统稳定性构成的挑战日益增加，且尚未得到充分研究，特别是在发展中国家。确定多种入侵植物定殖的气候适宜性对于控制和管理植物入侵的早期战略干预至关重要。我们对斯里兰卡的重点IAPS进行了建模，以确定其定殖气候适宜性最高的区域，并观察这些区域在预计的气候变化下可能如何改变。我们使用最大熵方法，在代表性浓度路径4.5和8.5的条件下，对2050年和2070年的14种具有全国重要性的IAPS进行建模。通过将14种IAPS的气候适宜性相加生成的综合气候适宜性地图，在ArcMap中进一步分为非常高、高、中、低和非常低五个等级。预计斯里兰卡南部和西部对大量IAPS具有潜在更高的气候适宜性。我们观察到所有五个等级的适宜面积变化（增减），其中两个变化足以产生总体负面影响，即（i）极低等级的收缩和（ii）中等等级的扩张。这两种变化都引发了未来斯里兰卡IAPS的潜在风险。
