Modeling Retest Effects in a Longitudinal Measurement Burst Study of Memory.

Longitudinal designs must deal with the confound between increasing age and increasing task experience (i.e., retest effects). Most existing methods for disentangling these factors rely on large sample sizes and are impractical for smaller scale projects. Here, we show that a measurement burst design combined with a model of retest effects can be used to study age-related change with modest sample sizes. A combined model of age-related change and retest-related effects was developed. In a simulation experiment, we show that with sample sizes as small as = 8, the model can reliably detect age effects of the size reported in the longitudinal literature while avoiding false positives when there is no age effect. We applied the model to data from a measurement burst study in which eight subjects completed a burst of seven sessions of free recall every year for five years. Six additional subjects completed a burst only in years 1 and 5. They should, therefore, have smaller retest effects but equal age effects. The raw data suggested slight improvement in memory over five years. However, applying the model to the yearly-testing group revealed that a substantial positive retest effect was obscuring stability in memory performance. Supporting this finding, the control group showed a smaller retest effect but an equal age effect. Measurement burst designs combined with models of retest effects allow researchers to employ longitudinal designs in areas where previously only cross-sectional designs were feasible.