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社交距离减少了对小概率事件的高估和对大概率事件的低估的偏差。

Social Distance Reduces the Biases of Overweighting Small Probabilities and Underweighting Large Probabilities.

机构信息

School of Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China.

School of Psychology and Cognitive Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.

出版信息

Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2021 Aug;47(8):1309-1324. doi: 10.1177/0146167220969051. Epub 2020 Dec 17.

Abstract

People often exhibit biases in probability weighting such as overweighting small probabilities and underweighting large probabilities. Our research examines whether increased social distance would reduce such biases. Participants completed valuation and choice tasks of probabilistic lotteries under conditions with different social distances. The results showed that increased social distance reduced these biases in both hypothetical (Studies 1 and 2) and incentivized (Study 3) settings. This reduction was accompanied by a decrease in emotional intensity and an increase in the attention to probability in the decision-making process (Study 4). Moreover, the bias-buffering effect of social distance was stronger in the gain domain than in the loss domain (Studies 1-4). These results suggest that increasing the social distance from the beneficiaries of the decisions can reduce biases in probability weighting and shed light on the relationship between social distance and the emotional-cognitive process in decision-making.

摘要

人们在概率加权中常常表现出偏差,例如对小概率事件赋予过高权重,而对大概率事件赋予过低权重。本研究考察了增加社会距离是否会减少这种偏差。参与者在不同社会距离条件下完成了概率彩票的估值和选择任务。结果表明,在假设(研究 1 和 2)和激励(研究 3)情境下,增加社会距离均会减少这些偏差。这种减少伴随着决策过程中情绪强度的降低和对概率的关注度的增加(研究 4)。此外,社会距离的偏差缓冲效应在收益域比在损失域更强(研究 1-4)。这些结果表明,增加与决策受益者的社会距离可以减少概率加权中的偏差,并揭示了社会距离与决策中情绪认知过程之间的关系。

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