Chen Zhen, Zan Zhe, Jia Shuwei
College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, 15 Longzi Lake Campus, Zhengzhou East New District, Zhengzhou, Henan 450046 People's Republic of China.
Clean Technol Environ Policy. 2022;24(8):2365-2384. doi: 10.1007/s10098-022-02319-9. Epub 2022 May 4.
With the acceleration of urbanization, traffic congestion and vehicle exhaust pollution are becoming increasingly serious problems. Focusing on the problem of urban pollution from vehicle exhaust, this study used system dynamics to establish an urban congestion mitigation and emission-reduction management model. Specifically, a nonlinear function that integrates system dynamics and a non-homogeneous discrete grey model (SD-NDGM) was used to construct an algorithm, which improved the accuracy of the model. Thereafter, the mid- and long-term effects of the restriction policy were explored. The main findings from dynamic model simulations were as follows: All types of restrictions alleviated traffic congestion to varying degrees, but "odd and even" restrictions had more obvious effects, with an average annual reduction rate of 43.53% in the number of motor vehicle trips. The driving-restriction policy had a time effect, significantly reducing the number of vehicle trips in the short term. However, it could have negative effects in the long term (e.g., agglomeration effect, emission-reduction paradox), and it does not fundamentally solve traffic and environmental problems. Thus, it could only be used as a phased policy, not a long-term measure. The purchase-restriction policy controlled excessive increases in the number of private cars, but it had little effect in terms of solving environmental problems. Compared with a single policy, the combination of public-transport development and driving-restriction policy not only reduced traffic congestion, air pollution, and air quality health indexes by 29.13%, 52.63%, and 54.63%, respectively, but also improved environmental carrying capacity by 294.26%. A combined approach can therefore be said to have certain benefits for society, health, and the environment.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-022-02319-9.
随着城市化进程的加速，交通拥堵和汽车尾气污染正日益成为严重问题。针对城市汽车尾气污染问题，本研究运用系统动力学建立了城市拥堵缓解与减排管理模型。具体而言，采用了一种将系统动力学与非齐次离散灰色模型相结合的非线性函数（SD-NDGM）构建算法，提高了模型的准确性。此后，探讨了限行政策的中长期影响。动态模型模拟的主要结果如下：各类限行措施均不同程度缓解了交通拥堵，但“单双号”限行效果更为明显，机动车出行次数年均减少率达43.53%。限行政策具有时效性，短期内能显著减少车辆出行次数。然而，从长期来看可能会产生负面影响（如集聚效应、减排悖论），且无法从根本上解决交通和环境问题。因此，它只能作为阶段性政策，而非长期措施。限购政策控制了私家车数量的过度增长，但在解决环境问题方面效果甚微。与单一政策相比，公共交通发展与限行政策相结合不仅使交通拥堵、空气污染和空气质量健康指数分别降低了29.13%、52.63%和54.63%，还使环境承载能力提高了294.26%。因此，可以说综合方法对社会、健康和环境具有一定益处。
网络版包含可在10.1007/s10098-022-02319-9获取的补充材料。
