Department of Industrial Engineering and Economics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, W9-74, 1-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8552, Japan.
Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jan 13;18(2):623. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18020623.
China is implementing intensive policies on electric vehicles to control air pollution in urban regions, especially the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the most polluted areas in China. The development of electric vehicles will lead to an increase in electricity demand. Because electricity is mostly generated by thermal power in China, primary energy consumption will also increase. This study sets two scenarios: with the electric vehicle policies scenario (REN) and without the electric vehicle policies scenario (FOS) to compare electric vehicle policy's impact. We quantified the health benefits of the electric vehicle policies in the BTH region by using an integrated assessment framework. Compared with scenario FOS, the local PM emission will reduce by 11.38%, 15.12%, 22.27%, and the concentration will reduce by 18.84%, 20.04%, and 19.57% in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei separately by 2030 in REN. The electric vehicle policies can avoid 23.5 million morbidities and 4.6 thousand mortalities and save CNY 20.65 billion using the value of statistical life and 1.5 million work loss days in 2030 in REN. Our results show that electric vehicle policy can bring a remarkably positive benefit to public health and the economy.
中国正在实施电动汽车密集政策,以控制城市地区的空气污染,特别是中国污染最严重的地区之一——京津冀地区。电动汽车的发展将导致电力需求的增加。由于中国的电力主要来自火力发电,因此一次能源消耗也将增加。本研究设定了两个情景:有电动汽车政策情景(REN)和没有电动汽车政策情景(FOS),以比较电动汽车政策的影响。我们使用综合评估框架量化了电动汽车政策在京津冀地区的健康效益。与 FOS 情景相比,到 2030 年,REN 情景下北京、天津和河北的本地 PM 排放将分别减少 11.38%、15.12%和 22.27%,浓度将分别减少 18.84%、20.04%和 19.57%。到 2030 年,在 REN 情景下,电动汽车政策可以避免 2350 万例疾病和 4600 例死亡,并节省 206.5 亿元人民币的生命统计价值和 150 万个工作日损失。我们的研究结果表明,电动汽车政策可以为公众健康和经济带来显著的积极效益。