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新型冠状病毒肺炎的演变:一种非连续的方法。

The evolution of COVID-19: A discontinuous approach.

作者信息

Doménech-Carbó Antonio, Doménech-Casasús Clara

机构信息

Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of Valencia, Dr. Moliner, 50, 46100 Burjassot València, Spain.

Hospital General de Requena, c/Casablanca s/n, 46340 Requena València, Spain.

出版信息

Physica A. 2021 Apr 15;568:125752. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125752. Epub 2021 Jan 9.

Abstract

The evolution of the COVID-19 disease is monitored on the basis of the daily number of infected patients and the daily number of deaths provided from national health agencies. The variation of such parameters with time parallels that described for the growth/decay of historic transportation systems revealing the appearance of discontinuities. The evolution of the pandemic disease is represented in terms of two nominally equivalent formulations: a logistic model with sharp changes in its rate parameters, and in topological terms resulting in 2nd order phase transitions in the infected patients/time space.

摘要

根据各国卫生机构提供的每日新增感染患者数量和每日死亡人数来监测新冠疫情的演变情况。这些参数随时间的变化与历史交通系统增长/衰退情况的描述相似,呈现出间断性。大流行病的演变可以用两种名义上等效的方式来表示:一种是速率参数有急剧变化的逻辑模型,另一种是从拓扑学角度来看,在感染患者/时间空间中导致二阶相变的模型。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4954/7796661/1e4594f9771e/gr1_lrg.jpg

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