Jeong Darae, Lee Chang Hyeong, Choi Yongho, Kim Junseok
Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713, Republic of Korea.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan 689-798, Republic of Korea.
Physica A. 2016 Jun 1;451:190-197. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072. Epub 2016 Feb 2.
In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters (contact rate) and (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In , the parameters , , and denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.
在本文中，我们针对2015年5月至7月韩国中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）疫情，提出了每日计算的加权平均基本再生数。我们使用具有分段常数参数（接触率）和（移除率）的SIR模型。我们采用显式欧拉方法求解SIR模型，并使用非线性最小二乘拟合程序来寻找最佳参数。在 中，参数 、 和 分别表示从参考日期起的天数、平均天数和加权因子。我们进行了一系列数值实验，并将结果与实际数据进行比较。特别是，利用基于前两个连续再生数预测的再生数，我们可以预测再生数的未来变化趋势。
