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基于机器学习方法的气候变化与人类健康相关性分析

Analysis of Correlation between Climate Change and Human Health Based on a Machine Learning Approach.

作者信息

Pizzulli Vito Alberto, Telesca Vito, Covatariu Gabriela

机构信息

School of Engineering, University of Basilicata Macchia Romana, Viale dell'Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy.

Faculty of Civil Engineering and Building Services, Gheorghe Asachi Technical University of Iasi, Prof. Dimitrie Mangeron Blvd. 65, 700259 Iași, Romania.

出版信息

Healthcare (Basel). 2021 Jan 17;9(1):86. doi: 10.3390/healthcare9010086.

Abstract

Climate change increasingly affects every aspect of human life. Recent studies report a close correlation with human health and it is estimated that global death rates will increase by 73 per 100,000 by 2100 due to changes in temperature. In this context, the present work aims to study the correlation between climate change and human health, on a global scale, using artificial intelligence techniques. Starting from previous studies on a smaller scale, that represent climate change and which at the same time can be linked to human health, four factors were chosen. Four causes of mortality, strongly correlated with the environment and climatic variability, were subsequently selected. Various analyses were carried out, using neural networks and machine learning to find a correlation between mortality due to certain diseases and the leading causes of climate change. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic climate change is strongly correlated with human health; some diseases are mainly related to risk factors while others require a more significant number of variables to derive a correlation. In addition, a forecast of victims related to climate change was formulated. The predicted scenario confirms that a prevalently increasing trend in climate change factors corresponds to an increase in victims.

摘要

气候变化日益影响着人类生活的方方面面。近期研究报告称其与人类健康密切相关,据估计,到2100年,由于气温变化,全球每10万人的死亡率将上升73人。在此背景下,本研究旨在利用人工智能技术在全球范围内研究气候变化与人类健康之间的相关性。从先前规模较小的、代表气候变化且同时可与人类健康相联系的研究出发,选取了四个因素。随后,挑选出四种与环境和气候变率密切相关的死亡原因。利用神经网络和机器学习进行了各种分析,以找出某些疾病导致的死亡率与气候变化主要原因之间的相关性。我们的研究结果表明,人为气候变化与人类健康密切相关;一些疾病主要与风险因素有关,而另一些疾病则需要更多变量才能得出相关性。此外,还制定了与气候变化相关的受害者预测。预测情景证实,气候变化因素普遍呈上升趋势对应着受害者数量的增加。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/159a/7829891/a4b22440fa4a/healthcare-09-00086-g001.jpg

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