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2019年冠状病毒病的年龄结构、严格政策、收入与传播：来自209个国家的证据

The Age Structure, Stringency Policy, Income, and Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019: Evidence From 209 Countries.

作者信息

Bilgili Faik, Dundar Munis, Kuşkaya Sevda, Lorente Daniel Balsalobre, Ünlü Fatma, Gençoğlu Pelin, Muğaloğlu Erhan

机构信息

Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Erciyes University, Melikgazi, Turkey.

Faculty of Medicine, Internal Medical Sciences, Department of Medical Genetics, Erciyes University, Talas, Turkey.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2021 Feb 12;11:632192. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.632192. eCollection 2020.

DOI:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.632192
PMID:33643117
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7907165/
Abstract

This article aims at answering the following questions: (1) What is the influence of age structure on the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)? (2) What can be the impact of stringency policy (policy responses to the coronavirus pandemic) on the spread of COVID-19? (3) What might be the quantitative effect of development levelincome and number of hospital beds on the number of deaths due to the COVID-19 epidemic? By employing the methodologies of generalized linear model, generalized moments method, and quantile regression models, this article reveals that the shares of median age, age 65, and age 70 and older population have significant positive impacts on the spread of COVID-19 and that the share of age 70 and older people in the population has a relatively greater influence on the spread of the pandemic. The second output of this research is the significant impact of stringency policy on diminishing COVID-19 total cases. The third finding of this paper reveals that the number of hospital beds appears to be vital in reducing the total number of COVID-19 deaths, while GDP per capita does not affect much the level of deaths of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, this article suggests some governmental health policies to control and decrease the spread of COVID-19.

摘要

本文旨在回答以下问题

（1）年龄结构对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）传播有何影响？（2）严格政策（针对新冠疫情的政策应对措施）对COVID-19传播会产生什么影响？（3）发展水平、收入和医院床位数对COVID-19疫情死亡人数可能产生怎样的量化影响？通过运用广义线性模型、广义矩方法和分位数回归模型等方法，本文揭示了年龄中位数、65岁及70岁及以上人口的占比，对COVID-19传播有显著的正向影响，且70岁及以上人口占比对疫情传播的影响相对更大。本研究的第二个成果是严格政策对减少COVID-19总病例数有显著影响。本文的第三个发现表明，医院床位数对于减少COVID-19死亡总数似乎至关重要，而人均国内生产总值对COVID-19疫情的死亡水平影响不大。最后，本文提出了一些政府卫生政策，以控制和减少COVID-19的传播。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e50/7907165/f4b2595995a9/fpsyg-11-632192-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e50/7907165/2c0db7f7fd79/fpsyg-11-632192-g001.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e50/7907165/f4b2595995a9/fpsyg-11-632192-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e50/7907165/2c0db7f7fd79/fpsyg-11-632192-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e50/7907165/0f50211f5720/fpsyg-11-632192-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e50/7907165/cfa7063a76e2/fpsyg-11-632192-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e50/7907165/f4b2595995a9/fpsyg-11-632192-g004.jpg

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