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一种用于拟合疫情期间轻症、重症和已知病例的简单模型及其在当前新冠疫情中的应用。

A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

作者信息

Betti Matthew I, Heffernan Jane M

机构信息

Mathematics and Computer Science, Mount Allison University, Sackville, New Brunswick, Canada.

Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

出版信息

Infect Dis Model. 2021;6:313-323. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.002. Epub 2021 Jan 15.

DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.002
PMID:33521406
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7833529/
Abstract

One of the major difficulties with modelling an ongoing epidemic is that often data is limited or incomplete, making it hard to estimate key epidemic parameters and outcomes (e.g. attack rate, peak time, reporting rate, reproduction number). In the current study, we present a model for data-fitting limited infection case data which provides estimates for important epidemiological parameters and outcomes. The model can also provide reasonable short-term (one month) projections. We apply the model to the current and ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in Canada both at the national and provincial/territorial level.

摘要

对正在发生的疫情进行建模的主要困难之一是，数据往往有限或不完整，这使得难以估计关键的疫情参数和结果（例如发病率、高峰期、报告率、繁殖数）。在本研究中，我们提出了一个用于拟合有限感染病例数据的模型，该模型可对重要的流行病学参数和结果进行估计。该模型还能提供合理的短期（一个月）预测。我们将该模型应用于加拿大当前正在发生的新冠肺炎疫情，涵盖国家和省/地区层面。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/5cbf816f273b/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/37f6dbd0fcd0/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/5797d1ad5620/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/eb7804bc8263/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/35007574fbba/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/5cbf816f273b/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/37f6dbd0fcd0/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/5797d1ad5620/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/eb7804bc8263/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/35007574fbba/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e46/7843405/5cbf816f273b/gr5.jpg

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