Brooks Daniel R, Hoberg Eric P, Boeger Walter A, Trivellone Valeria
Institute for Evolution, Centre for Ecological Research, Budapest, Hungary.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2022 Mar;69(2):254-267. doi: 10.1111/tbed.14009. Epub 2021 Feb 21.
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) increasingly threaten global food security and public health. Despite technological breakthroughs, we are losing the battle with (re)emerging diseases as treatment costs and production losses rise. A horizon scan of diseases of crops, livestock, seafood and food-borne illness suggests these costs are unsustainable. The paradigm of coevolution between pathogens and particular hosts teaches that emerging diseases occur only when pathogens evolve specific capacities that allow them to move to new hosts. EIDs ought to be rare and unpredictable, so crisis response is the best we can do. Alternatively, the Stockholm Paradigm suggests that the world is full of susceptible but unexposed hosts that pathogens could infect, given the opportunity. Global climate change, globalized trade and travel, urbanization and land-use changes (often associated with biodiversity loss) increase those opportunities, making EID frequent. We can, however, anticipate their arrival in new locations and their behaviour once they have arrived. We can 'find them before they find us', mitigating their impacts. The DAMA (Document, Assess, Monitor, Act) protocol alters the current reactive stance and embodies proactive solutions to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of EID, extending human and material resources and buying time for development of new vaccinations, medications and control measures.
新发传染病日益威胁全球粮食安全和公共卫生。尽管有技术突破，但随着治疗成本和生产损失的增加，我们在与（再）发疾病的斗争中正在失利。对农作物、牲畜、海产品和食源性疾病的前瞻性调查表明，这些成本是不可持续的。病原体与特定宿主共同进化的范式表明，只有当病原体进化出使其能够转移到新宿主的特定能力时，才会出现新发疾病。新发传染病应该很少见且不可预测，所以我们所能做的最好的事情就是应对危机。或者，斯德哥尔摩范式表明，世界上充满了易受感染但未接触过病原体的宿主，一旦有机会，病原体就可能感染它们。全球气候变化、全球化贸易和旅行、城市化以及土地利用变化（通常与生物多样性丧失有关）增加了这些机会，使新发传染病变得频繁。然而，我们可以预测它们在新地点的出现以及它们到达后的行为。我们可以“在它们找到我们之前找到它们”，减轻它们的影响。DAMA（记录、评估、监测、行动）方案改变了当前的被动应对立场，体现了积极主动的解决方案，以预测和减轻新发传染病的影响，扩展人力和物力资源，并为开发新的疫苗、药物和控制措施争取时间。
