Sommar Johan Nilsson, Schantz Peter, Strömgren Magnus, Forsberg Bertil
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umea University, Umea, Sweden.
The Research Unit for Movement, Health and Environment, The Swedish School of Sport and Health Sciences, GIH, Stockholm, Sweden.
BMJ Open Sport Exerc Med. 2021 Jan 29;7(1):e000980. doi: 10.1136/bmjsem-2020-000980. eCollection 2021.
The study aims to make use of individual data to estimate the impact on premature mortality due to both existing commuter bicycling and the potential impact due to increased physical activity through shifting transport mode from car commuting to bicycling.
Using registry data on home and work addresses for the population of Stockholm County the shortest bicycling route on a network of bicycle paths and roads was retrieved. Travel survey data were used to establish current modes of commuting. The relation between duration of bicycling and distance bicycled within the general population in 2015 was established as a basis for identifying individuals that currently drive a car to work but were estimated to have the physical capacity to bicycle to work within 30 min. Within this mode-shift scenario from car-to-bike the duration of bicycling per week was estimated, both among current and potential bicycle commuters. The health impact assessment (HIA) on mortality due to bicycle commuting physical activity was estimated using the same relative risk as within the WHO Health Economic Assessment Tool.
The current number of bicycle commuters were 53 000, and the scenario estimated an additional 111 000. Their mean bicycle distances were 4.5 and 3.4 km, respectively. On average these respective amounts of physical activity reduced the yearly mortality by 16% and 12%, resulting in 11.3 and 16.2 fewer preterm deaths per year.
The HIA of transferring commuting by car to bicycle estimated large health benefits due to increased physical activity.
本研究旨在利用个体数据，估计现有通勤自行车骑行对过早死亡率的影响，以及通过将交通方式从汽车通勤转变为自行车通勤增加身体活动量所带来的潜在影响。
利用斯德哥尔摩县人口的家庭和工作地址登记数据，检索自行车道和道路网络上的最短自行车骑行路线。出行调查数据用于确定当前的通勤方式。确定了2015年普通人群中骑行持续时间与骑行距离之间的关系，以此为基础识别目前开车上班但估计有体力在30分钟内骑自行车上班的个体。在这种从汽车到自行车的出行方式转变情景下，估计了当前和潜在自行车通勤者每周的骑行持续时间。使用与世界卫生组织健康经济评估工具相同的相对风险，估计自行车通勤身体活动对死亡率的健康影响评估（HIA）。
当前自行车通勤者人数为53000人，该情景估计额外增加111000人。他们的平均骑行距离分别为4.5公里和3.4公里。平均而言，这些相应的身体活动量每年可降低死亡率16%和12%，每年早产死亡人数分别减少11.3人和16.2人。
将通勤方式从汽车转变为自行车的健康影响评估表明，由于身体活动增加，对健康有很大益处。
