Department of Mathematics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802, USA.
Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2021 Feb 8;149:e42. doi: 10.1017/S0950268821000297.
During a disease outbreak, healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to treat infected individuals. However, these HCWs are themselves susceptible to contracting the disease. As more HCWs get infected, fewer are available to provide care for others, and the overall quality of care available to infected individuals declines. This depletion of HCWs may contribute to the epidemic's severity. To examine this issue, we explicitly model declining quality of care in four differential equation-based susceptible, infected and recovered-type models with vaccination. We assume that vaccination, recovery and survival rates are affected by quality of care delivered. We show that explicitly modelling HCWs and accounting for declining quality of care significantly alters model-predicted disease outcomes, specifically case counts and mortality. Models neglecting the decline of quality of care resulting from infection of HCWs may significantly under-estimate cases and mortality. These models may be useful to inform health policy that may differ for HCWs and the general population. Models accounting for declining quality of care may therefore improve the management interventions considered to mitigate the effects of a future outbreak.
在疾病爆发期间，医护人员（HCWs）对于治疗感染个体至关重要。然而，这些 HCWs 本身也容易感染疾病。随着越来越多的 HCWs 感染，能够提供护理的人数减少，而感染个体获得的整体护理质量下降。这种 HCWs 的减少可能会导致疫情的严重程度增加。为了研究这个问题，我们在四个基于微分方程的易感染、感染和恢复型模型中明确地建立了护理质量下降的模型，这些模型都接种了疫苗。我们假设疫苗接种、恢复和存活率受到提供的护理质量的影响。我们表明，明确地建立 HCWs 模型并考虑护理质量的下降会显著改变模型预测的疾病结果，特别是病例数和死亡率。忽略 HCWs 感染导致的护理质量下降的模型可能会显著低估病例数和死亡率。这些模型可能有助于制定卫生政策，这些政策可能因 HCWs 和一般人群而异。考虑护理质量下降的模型因此可以改善被认为可以减轻未来疫情影响的管理干预措施。
